Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|Jun 03, 2026 05:26
Today's Technical Supplement - Option Structure Analysis and Variable Inventory Levels Tell me about the two points of Pu 7600 is currently the most concentrated Gamma position in the near end, and it is also an important Gamma magnet for the OpEx contract that expires on June 18th. Due to the positive Gamma environment in which market makers tend to buy for hedging when prices fall and sell for hedging when prices rise, the index is easily pegged to around 7600, suppressing volatility, which is also one of the reasons for the sustained market volatility in recent times. 7800 is the area where call positions due in June and July are more concentrated, and can be considered as the next important target level and potential resistance level. The Gamma distribution between 7600 and 7800 is relatively sparse. If the index effectively breaks through 7600 and enters the Gamma vacuum zone, the market maker's clamping effect on prices will weaken, market volatility may significantly increase, and prices may have the opportunity to move faster towards 7800. Simply put, 7600 is the current ceiling (now considered a breakthrough), and 7800 is the next goal. Why are there still too many quantized signals There are two important details today. Firstly, influenced by geopolitical rumors in the early trading session, the market was hit around 756, but in the late trading session, large funds quickly intervened, pulling the index back and holding the key support level of 758.65. This kind of tail end repair behavior indicates that the main funds' judgment of the upward trend has not changed. Secondly, the VIX continued to decline by 2% today, with no signs of panic trading. The market is at a high level but there is no panic hedge, indicating that institutions as a whole believe that the current risks are controllable. When these two signals are combined, the probability of a bull losing control and collapsing in the short term is still very low, and the risk of a pullback in mid June will increase. Key Points: Hold onto 758.65, the bullish structure is intact, and the targets are 762 and 765. Below 758, clear 756 and 755 in sequence. Internal rotation of semiconductor sector Today, Nvidia's performance was lackluster, with large funds switching horizontally within the sector. MRVL surged 32.5% in a single day today, breaking through $300 in after hours trading. The narrative of Huang Renxun's customized chips and optical communication has directed funds from the super large market value Nvidia to mid market value customized chip targets such as MRVL. Meanwhile, Panlin Group, Kelei, and Applied Materials all reached a historic high today. The logic is straightforward: SK Hynix and Samsung are aggressively expanding production to take on AI orders, requiring a large number of lithography machines and manufacturing equipment, which directly benefits equipment stocks. This internal differentiation within the sector indicates that the AI mainline has not ended, but has entered a more refined stage. Stock selection is more important than sector selection. The logic of MRVL is correct, but after a single day surge of 30%, RSI is extremely overbought, and now is not the time to chase higher.
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