We hide the price curve of BTC from the "cost basis of different coin ages" and only look at the three lines of red/yellow/green, which seem clear. When the shortest term cost line (red) crosses the longest term cost line (green), it is a signal that a trend is about to start. This signal has appeared a total of 4 times between 2022 and 2025. From the graph, we can see that May 2026 is the closest time the red line is to the green line after entering the bear market, and also the closest time to a trend reversal. In previous analyses, we have discussed multiple times whether it is a "rebound or reversal", whether it is a "bear end or bull return"; What we are actually waiting for is this signal. Almost, it's not Niu Hui either ..... The direction of the red line will determine how long the bear is. One is a significant deviation like April June 2022, and the other is a slight deviation like October December 2022. The former corresponds to emotional collapse and waterfall drop; The latter corresponds to digestive divergence and wide oscillation. If it is the former, the repair period should be at least 6 months or more; If it's the latter, 2-3 months is enough. I personally think that the deviation may be between the two or biased towards the latter. Because, from the perspective of the proportion of losses, it is currently approaching the limit range; But at the same time, we also need to consider the actual situation of the current US stock market sucking blood from the cryptocurrency circle, leading to continuous outflow of funds from the exchange.