Art of Speculation|6月 02, 2026 23:50
Today's US stock market summary: Lao Huang's MRVL surged by 30%, software stocks rebounded, and funds began to rotate again
Today, the S&P 500 continued to grind around 7600 points, following the grinding style rise mentioned yesterday, gradually increasing by 0.13% and reaching a new historical high, giving other sectors enough time to make up for the gains.
But today's structure is completely different from yesterday's.
The market breadth has significantly improved today
Today is a real general increase. Russell 2000 rose 0.9%, led by utilities, energy, materials, and industrial sectors, with small and mid cap stocks outperforming the market.
This is the healthy rotation signal I want to see, as large cap technology stocks take a breath and funds flow towards previously lagging directions.
But don't overthink it, semiconductors, storage, optical communication, interconnection, cloud computing, and so on are still the core configurations of the AI wave, they are just digesting overbought.
The biggest thing today: Huang Renxun shouted for MRVL
It's our familiar old friend again. I don't know how many articles I wrote on MRVL last month, but I counted no less than 10 articles and several in-depth research reports.
Huang Renxun continues to promote products at Computex in Taipei, and this time specifically named Meiweier Technology as the next trillion dollar company.
MRVL closed with a surge of over 30% today, breaking through the $300 mark after trading and reaching a high of 328.
This is not groundless. Nvidia directly injected $2 billion into MRVL in March this year, and Lao Huang is giving his investment platform. MRVL simultaneously produces customized ASIC chips and optical communication lines. Large companies need customized chips to achieve NVIDIA transformation, and the expansion of AI clusters requires optical interconnection. MRVL has hit the two most certain directions for the next stage of AI data centers.
Lao Huang also said another sentence worth remembering: "The end of AI is not computing power, but connectivity. Copper cables should be used first, and when copper cables are not enough, optical interconnection can be used. Therefore, the optical communication sector surged 17.6% today.
Broadcom also saw a significant increase, and tomorrow's after hours financial report is the most important single event of the week.
Software stocks saw a significant pullback today
The IGV Software ETF fell 3.21% today, AppLovin fell 1.88%, and ServiceNow fell 6%.
The software stocks have risen too quickly in the past two days, and today's correction is a normal digestion.
A technical signal worth noting
Tomorrow, the daily charts of the S&P and Nasdaq will officially complete the 9-count TD sequence. More importantly, the weekly chart is also approaching the exhaustion point of 9 counts.
The simultaneous occurrence of a 9-count on both the daily and weekly charts has historically corresponded to a window for major funds to distribute or lock in profits at high prices.
This is not a signal of a major collapse, but it tells you that tomorrow is not suitable to chase after a historical high. If there is another wave of surge before Broadcom's financial report tomorrow, it is more likely to be a lure to buy more, not a buy.
I don't think we need to worry too much about the first week of June, mainly the CPI and SpaceX listings next week, as well as the quarterly OPEC week on June 18th (this can be referenced from March 17th to March 30th, and I predict a 3-5% correction in the market from mid June to the end of June)
JOLTS data exceeds expectations, job market remains strong
Today, the number of job vacancies for JOLTS reached 7.626 million, far exceeding the market expectation of 6.86 million, and the previous value has been raised.
This is a very strong employment signal, laying a good forward foundation for Friday's non farm payroll data. The market judges that the Federal Reserve does not need to restart active interest rate hikes, and the valuation support of growth stocks is retained.
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell today, which also explains why small cap stocks outperformed today and the market expects interest rates to not rise again.
Bitcoin continues to plummet
Bitcoin fell to a low of $66000 today, nearly 50% lower than its historical high. Over the past few hours, long positions exceeding $1 billion have been forced to close out. We are looking to see if there will be support around $64000-65000 to clear out short positions, consolidate them, and then fall below $60000 to $57000 to $58000 to quickly recover and form a bottom. At present, the funding rate is too positive, and there are many people who are long, which also provides more downward fuel. Can we really pay attention to the end of June, which is synchronized with the US stock market.
Bitcoin fell earlier than the US stock market as a sign of respect, and can be used as a leading indicator. You can refer to January 14th to January 28th, when Bitcoin fell first and the US stock market followed suit two weeks later. This time it's probably quite similar, so we can focus on the week of June 18th.
MSTR sold Bitcoin on the public market for the first time, and although there were only 32 coins, the signal of loose faith was amplified by the market.
The AI investment boom continues to drain funds from the cryptocurrency market, and there is no clear reversal signal in the short term.
Key milestones in the coming days
Tomorrow: ISM Service PMI (30 minutes after opening)+Broadcom earnings post market+CrowdStrike earnings post market
Day after tomorrow: ADP Small Non Farm
Friday: Non farm payroll data - this is the most important macro variable of the week, and if hourly wages are too hot, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates will quickly jump up
Broadcom is the most important single event of this week. The market expectations are extremely high, and a large number of bullish positions have already been ambushed in advance. Huang Renxun named Broadcom and MRVL as the biggest beneficiaries of the AI application layer, but high expectations also mean that any delay will be ruined. Therefore, I will take half of my position before tomorrow's AVGO financial report, and keep the remaining half for future reports.
summary
Today's market breadth has improved, with small cap stocks and traditional sectors making up gains, which is a healthy rotational signal.
But tomorrow's structure is very subtle. The daily TD9 count triggers the emotional high point before Broadcom's financial report, which is a node that is prone to inducing long and false breakthroughs. Not chasing high around 7600, 758-756 is the short-term first support, and 749 is the core momentum line.
The story of MRVL is true, with solid logic, but it has already broken through $300 after market hours and is extremely overbought in the short term. It is not the time to chase high now. The rotation logic of the software section has not changed, it just needs time to digest. The key support cannot be broken by stepping back, and the direction is still upward.
The combination of SpaceX's launch in mid June, FOMC, and OpEx still makes that time window the highest risk position for the entire month of June.
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