This week's BTC cycle positioning: downward period. This week, the encrypted internal fund pipeline broke down first. Global liquidity is actually differentiated: DXY falls back; 10Y US Treasury bonds fall back; M2 continues to rise; But the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is still shrinking, and the market value of stablecoins has also slightly fallen. So the macro level is not entirely red. The real obstacles are funding channels and belief narratives. The funding pipeline is clearly under pressure: The BTC spot ETF has had a net outflow of approximately $1.42 billion in the past week, with institutional funds shifting from a blood transfusion to a blood transfusion. The narrative of beliefs is also deteriorating: The fear of corruption index fell to 23, entering Extreme Fear. The market narrative focuses on ETF outflows, Mt Gox transfers, and Strategy sales disclosures. The price side also confirms the destruction: BTC fell to around $67964 on the 7th, a drop of 11.1%, approaching the cost range for miners. Macro liquidity has not completely deteriorated; But the weakening of funding channels, belief narratives, and agreement supply and demand has pushed the cycle from the accumulation period to the decline period. The most noteworthy thing now is not a single candlestick. But can three things be fixed: ETF weekly outflow narrowed to within $500 million; DXY and 10Y US Treasury bonds continue to decline; The fear of corruption index has returned to above 25. If these are not fixed, the market value of stablecoins still around $320 billion is useless. The water is still in the pool. But it did not flow into BTC.