Ethereum's ETH price is as stable as an old dog, what is it really trying to install? How to translate Bitcoin has fallen to around 69000, while Ethereum is still experiencing narrow fluctuations in the 1960-2000 range. From 1960 to 2000, then back to 1960, back and forth for several days, ETH just refuses to break through. A friend asked me, has ETH hit bottom? I replied directly with four words: 'What the hell!'! So, is ETH not falling? What are you still waiting for? Is it really as stable as an old dog? Have you reached the bottom yet? 1. Let's first look at a set of core data and uncover the truth behind it. ETH current price 1980-2000, 24-hour low 1954. Giant Whale accumulated over 140000 ETH in May, and the exchange reserves continued to decline. A certain giant whale just opened a $44 million short order in 2004 (with 10 times leverage and a liquidation price of 2340). Hyperliquid, however, saw a net buy of approximately $9.1 million in ETH, confronting the bears. A short leverage of $1.82 billion has accumulated above the Binance ETH perpetual contract, with a long short ratio close to 1:7. A long short ratio close to 1:7 means two things: Firstly, individual investors are extremely bullish, while institutions are betting on a decline. Retail investors kept buying at the bottom around 2000, while large investors and institutions heavily held positions above 2000 to suppress short positions. This is a typical "smart money versus retail investors" structure. Secondly, potential empty fuel is accumulating. A short position of 1.82 billion US dollars is piled up above, and once ETH breaks through the 2050-2100 region, these short positions will be forced to cut losses, forming a "short stampede", and the price may quickly rise. At present, bears have an overwhelming advantage, but the bullish sentiment among retail investors is still present. This extreme long short divergence usually means that a change is approaching. If BTC stabilizes and rebounds, ETH may explode these short positions upwards; If BTC continues to fall, this group of bears will accelerate their decline. Staring at 2000- if it breaks, it will accelerate downwards, and if it goes up, it may be short. Bitcoin is experiencing a unilateral downward trend, with limited room for rebound in the future. It will only have a decent rebound when it drops to around 60000 yuan. So, it is very unwise for retail investors to keep buying ETH around 2000. They think that ETH will hit bottom here, but they do not know that they are likely to face a tragic strangulation in the future!! 2. Market status: Where is the bottom? The price has currently fallen to the 0.236 level of the Fibonacci retracement in the major cycle, which is around 1960 US dollars. There is a strong gravitational force here! At the daily level, ETH has fallen below all short-term moving averages, and the moving averages are trending southward, indicating a weak overall trend. In terms of the four hour chart, the price rebounded from 1954 to 2000, but was repeatedly blocked in the 2000-2050 region and has not yet broken through key pressure levels. The key support zone is from 1950 to 1970 (the previous low), and the 200 week EMA (around 1930-1950) is the last line of defense. Once it effectively falls below 1900, the next target is 1750 → 1600 → 1400. 3. Chain signal: What are giant whales doing? 1、 A certain whale opened a $44 million ETH short order. 10 times leverage, with an entry price of approximately 2004 and a liquidation price of 2340. This is currently the most clear bearish signal in the market. 2、 5000 ETH (approximately $9.8 million) were transferred to Kraken, and the address was previously bought at a price of 1999, which meant a loss of approximately $200000 and was eliminated. 3、 Santiment data shows that whale holdings have decreased from 125.02M to 124.98M, although the change is not significant, combined with selling behavior, it is more like distribution rather than fundraising. 4、 Hyperliquid saw a net purchase of approximately $9.1 million in ETH. This is in opposition to the $44 million short position, forming a potential bearish signal. 4. Why are bears so fierce? ETF continues to experience net outflows. Ethereum investment products have experienced net outflows for several consecutive weeks, with a monthly outflow of approximately $400 million in May. The funding rate is close to zero, indicating a lack of active buying in the market. L2 competition intensifies, narrative looseness. Base, Arbitrarum, and Optimism, the three major L2 platforms, have accounted for over 90% of transaction volume. Small and medium-sized Rollups are facing a survival crisis, and the Ethereum mainnet charging model is being questioned. It is difficult for ETH to replicate the independent upward trend of the past in the short term. Two scripts above and below: The script above: If holding the 1950 counterattack, first look at 2000, then look at 2100 (suppressed by the 7-day moving average). If we rush to this point and happen to experience a loss of 44 million short orders, we may force a short stop loss, which is just a short-term price pulse. A rebound is an opportunity to escape, not to buy at the bottom. The following script (with a higher probability): Below 1950, explore the 1850-1900 area. The institution here will receive the goods in batches; If you continue to break, go towards 1600-1700. 5. Trading strategy. Currently observing from 1980 to 2000. Short selling conditions: Wait for a bearish signal to appear when the pullback reaches 2050-2100, and lay out in batches. The first goal is 1950, the second goal is 1850, and the third goal is 1600. Stop loss set at 2130-2150. Long conditions: limited to short positions only, it is not recommended to go against the trend. Only operate in the 1850-1900 area, with a long shadow line and a stable decrease in volume before attempting. Fast in, fast out. Mid line strategy: Wait until Bitcoin drops to around 45000 before considering entering the market to buy ETH in batches and time slots. At this price point, it's best to wait and see. 6. A final warm reminder. ETH looks stable, but in fact, there is a lot of pressure. 44 million empty orders are hitting the top, and the 2000 mark is repeatedly tested. Once it breaks 1950, it accelerates downwards. Will the 44 million empty orders be blown up? Logically, the 9 million buy orders from Hyperliquid are not enough to counter the 44 million bears. Unless BTC suddenly rebounds strongly, it is more likely that bears will win. For ETH, a skinny camel, currently short positions are more worth investing in. At present, even the main force of the bulls is retreating while fighting, why rush to pick up the flying knife? 2000 is the face of ETH, but how long can the face last? ETH, Ethereum 3D Integrated Trading Analysis, 5th Wave Opened