链研社|AI First🔶💧|6月 02, 2026 12:55
The rise in storage appears to be a supply-demand gap on the surface, but at the bottom, it is an overflow of capital expenditures from cloud vendors. As long as Google, Microsoft Meta、 Amazon and Oracle continue to leverage to buy devices, giving storage chains flexibility in terms of orders, prices, and profits. Once the cash flow of super giants starts to tighten, or the bond market re examines AI investment returns, the pricing logic of this chain will become very fragile.
Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Oracle and other cloud vendors are the core engines of AI capital expenditure. They buy GPUs, servers, build data centers, expand networks, generate electricity, and buy storage. The visibility of orders corresponds to the capital expenditure budget of these companies.
The focus of observation for the storage industry next is not whether storage is an AI core asset, and the market has already given an answer to this question.
What we really need to see are three changes:
-Has the capital expenditure guideline for cloud vendors continued to be revised
-Can the price increase of storage companies be smoothly transmitted to gross profit margin
-Is the bond market still willing to use low-cost funds to support AI infrastructure
As soon as one of them starts to deteriorate marginally, the storage industry will switch back from asset revaluation to periodic product realization.
I saw a US stock blogger write a viewpoint similar to mine before, but he gave clearer judgments. Last night, Google continued to raise large amounts of funds despite having ample free cash flow, indicating that the investment has not yet reached its limit.
When cloud providers reduce their expenses and the bond market no longer pays, the valuation logic switches. Nowadays, capital expenditures not only invest all the profits they earned in previous years, but also finance investments, because they can see cash flow. To meet the demand index outbreak, whoever has the most cloud infrastructure will have stronger cash flow, and they also need to deal with the risk of potential business contraction. Only by raising all the financing during the hottest time of the market can they have a chance to get on the table.
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