Today's Technical Supplement - Key Points and Variable Signal Today's summary mainly talked about fundamentals and news, and now we will add the core points of technical and option structure for easy tracking. S&P 500: High level passivation, but gamma anti-theft doors have boundaries Today, S&P stuck firmly to the 50 EMA and slowly pushed up the uptrend line on the 15 minute chart, a trend called Grinding, a grinding upward movement. But the divergence rate at the daily level has reached a rare level - the index currently has 400 points of room from the 50 day EMA. This level of deviation from the moving average has rarely occurred in recent years. Why hasn't there been a callback yet? The answer is in the option structure. According to the analysis of the near end Gamma exposure, the hedging intensive zone for market makers is stuck between 7550 and 7650. As long as the market is in a positive Gamma environment, the hedging mechanism of market makers is to buy low and sell high, which is equivalent to installing an anti-theft door on the price. Any deep squat during the day will trigger buying to stabilize the price. But this mechanism has boundaries: Once the daily line substantially falls below 7550, the positive Gamma buffer zone becomes invalid, and below 7000 is the core put option wall, which is the true high-level support. 7000 to 8000 are the two ends of the current macro box, and the price is currently in the upper position of the box. Hold 7550, high passivation continues. Breaking below 7550, mean reversion is initiated. IWM Small Cap Stocks This needs to be discussed separately. Today, IWM opened short and failed to fill the gap throughout the day, closing at 288.98, effectively falling below the Hull moving average of 289.02 and the core positive Gamma chip wall of 290. This drop switched IWM's market maker hedging environment from positive Gamma to negative Gamma. The difference is crucial - in a positive Gamma environment, market makers buy low and sell high to stabilize prices, while in a negative Gamma environment, market makers take advantage of the situation to help the market fall and sell more as it falls. At present, the large option orders have formed a negative Gamma magnet at 275 below, and IWM is likely to be the first to bottom towards 275. Historical patterns show that the decline of IWM positive gamma often corresponds to a periodic peak. On May 6th and May 14th, there were similar signals of weakening after high-level passivation. The overall market index is still hitting new highs, but small cap stocks have begun to weaken. This differentiation has historically been an early signal of a narrowing market breadth. But although there are signs of weakness, I think we should return to 296 before the big pullback, at most 300. Micron: Emotional overload, 1000 is the life and death line Micron's current moving average deviation is extremely extreme, with the stock price firmly above 1000, but the 10 day moving average is only around 837, the 20 day moving average is around 784, and the 50 day EMA is around 633. Today, there are still 40000 buyer call contracts entering the options market at the exercise price of 1200, and FOMO funds are still rushing in. But this level of deviation from the moving average is unsustainable. Core logic: Hold on to 1000, positive Gamma tray mechanism is effective, short-term can continue to look at the far end. Once the daily chart substantially falls below 1000, the loosening of chips will trigger a rapid decline. The first target is 837 near the 10 day moving average, and if it continues to weaken in the medium term, it will seek support from 633 in the 50 day EMA. Before falling below 1000, there is no problem watching the frenzy of large option orders. But don't chase higher stocks at this position. In the short term, it is possible to follow the market and further surge to 1200, or even the 1500 given by analysts, but one must be very cautious and cautiously pursue higher prices. VIX: Wall Street refuses to buy insurance Goldman Sachs' latest report points out that put options on the S&P and Nasdaq are extremely cheap, and long positions on the exchange have become numb to refusing to buy insurance due to long-term unilateral gains. But VIX's own technical graphics are quietly changing. On the 4-hour chart, VIX's Bollinger Bands percentage indicator has started to rebound after reaching an absolute freezing point of 0.00. More importantly, VIX completed the action of crossing the weekly HMA from bottom to top at the weekly level. Historical experience shows that after completing this crossing action, VIX often experiences a large wave of volatility that rushes towards the 18-20 range. But this does not necessarily mean that the market will plummet. A more likely scenario is that after the VIX quickly rose to 18-20, it was suppressed by funds short selling volatility at high levels, and the market experienced an initial decline before quickly returning to an upward trend. If this pattern holds, it corresponds to a quick but not too deep callback, followed by continued bearish pressure. Overall, let's take a look at the structure of these past few weeks Three core observation points: Firstly, the S&P 7550 is the short-term long short boundary. Keep watching 7700-7800. Falling below triggers mean regression. Secondly, IWM has fallen into the negative Gamma region, where 275 is the lower magnet position. The weakness of IWM is earlier than that of the overall market, which is a breadth indicator that needs to be continuously tracked. Thirdly, the VIX weekly HMA crossing indicates that a volatility pulse is on the way. The time window is likely to be between the launch of SpaceX on June 12th and the OpEx week on June 18th. Pay attention to taking profits when holding high positions, keep enough cash in hand, and wait for better entry opportunities brought by fluctuations.