Strategy has sold BTC for the first time since 2022, and the ETF has had a net outflow of nearly $3 billion for 10 consecutive days

The cryptocurrency market continues to be under pressure today, with BTC falling to 70686 USDT and ETH simultaneously falling below the key support of $2000, indicating a significant cooling of market risk appetite. Behind this pullback, institutions, ETFs, and on chain funds have simultaneously shown bearish signals. According to SEC documents, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently sold 32 BTC, marking its first Bitcoin sale since 2022; At the same time, another 411 BTC were transferred to Coinbase, triggering market attention on the expectation of future reductions. The funding situation of ETFs continues to deteriorate: The BTC spot ETF has experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive days, with a cumulative outflow of approximately $2.97 billion; BlackRock IBIT had a daily net outflow of approximately $528 million; The ETH spot ETF has experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive days, with a cumulative outflow of approximately $695 million. According to AiCoin data, the BTC-ahr999 hoard index is currently at 0.5803, a new low in nearly two months, and has entered the "fixed investment range". At the same time, the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) has dropped to 23, with a daily decline of 20.69%, and market sentiment has entered a state of 'extreme fear'. Both on chain and derivative markets have shown bearish signals. The giant whale "Evaded" has closed multiple BTC positions, resulting in a loss of approximately 4.83 million US dollars, and has re established 940 BTC short positions, with a current short position size of approximately 71 million US dollars. However, from a historical perspective, when FGI enters extreme fear and AHR999 enters the fixed investment range, it often means that the market has gradually approached the medium - to long-term value zone. However, before ETF funds and large on chain investors return, there is still a lack of clear right-hand stop signals in the short term. At the trading level, it is currently more suitable to wait for confirmation on the right side after the "volume increase to stop the decline+ETF fund return", rather than blindly chasing short positions or aggressively buying bottom. Short term focus: • Support area: 70686, 69300 USDT Pressure zone: 72000 (EMA30), 72600 (oscillating upper edge) In terms of trading strategy: If BTC retraces to the range of 70686-69300 and experiences a contraction in volume to stop the decline, it may be considered to take light positions and try to increase in batches; If BTC rebounds to the 72000-72600 range and is blocked, and a long upper shadow line appears, the short-term short selling on the right side has a relatively higher winning rate; The true confirmation signal on the right side still needs to wait for the net inflow of ETFs in a single day, the resumption of holdings by major players on the chain, and the appearance of 4H MACD golden cross resonance. Risk Warning: The market fluctuates greatly, and this article is only for market information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.