BTC's defense line of 72000 has been breached, and the fifth wave of accelerated decline has begun. Where will the next stop fall? How to translate My friends, under my repeated and hoarse cries, the price of Bitcoin has finally been pushed above the important support level of 72000 ❗ ️ In late May, Bitcoin was still in a sideways trend of 73000-74000, and the market was waiting for direction. On June 2nd, the direction was chosen downwards. The price dropped from 73600 to around 71100, effectively breaking through the triple resonance support zone of 72000-73000. This is not a 'pin', it is a 'real break'. The fifth wave of decline is accelerating, and Tom, who once shouted 'Bull Returns Quickly' and Bitcoin 100000 to 150000, is Li, are you dumbfounded at this moment? 1、 Why is 72000 important? 72000-73000 is not an ordinary support, but a convergence point of multiple technical levels, with an upward trajectory of about 72000 since February. In natural trading theory, there is a high probability of a price turning or sideways consolidation after reaching a strong gravitational level. Over the past week, prices have indeed fluctuated horizontally above the region. But when selling pressure continues to accumulate and buying is exhausted, sideways trading becomes a 'downward relay'. On June 2nd, the Polymarket delivery window became the trigger. The early liquidation and exit of game funds triggered a chain reaction, resulting in the breakdown of 72000. Technical breakthrough → stop loss surge → accelerated decline, this is the standard script. 2、 Polymarket delivery: short-term disturbances, not the root cause On June 2nd, the relevant contracts were delivered on Polymarket. A large number of game positions have gathered around 72000, and when the price approaches the area, game funds close out early, creating additional selling pressure. After the price fell below 72000, more stop loss orders were triggered, accelerating the decline. But Polymarket delivery is just a catalyst, not the root cause. The fundamental reason is: continuous net outflows of ETFs, rising expectations of Japan's interest rate hikes, and lingering geopolitical risks - the triple macro bearish sentiment has been suppressing the market. After the delivery is completed, the short-term disturbance factor will subside and the price will return to fundamental driving. 3、 Countdown to Japan's interest rate hike: Mid term bearish sentiment is approaching On June 16th, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision, with a market price hike probability of about 70%. The yield of Japanese 10-year treasury bond has soared to the highest level since 1996, and the market is pricing ahead of tight expectations. The Bank of Japan is expected to adopt a combination of "raising interest rates+suspending balance sheet tightening": raising interest rates from 0.75% to 1.0%, while suspending balance sheet tightening to alleviate upward pressure on Japanese bond yields. Raising interest rates and tightening liquidity are negative for risk assets. The strengthening of the yen → closing of carry trades → global borrowing of yen to buy risky assets is forced to flow back. When the 0.25% interest rate hike was implemented in August 2024, the Nikkei plummeted by 12% and the global market plummeted in a single day. If the interest rate hike is implemented this time, the impact will only be greater. Even more dangerous is that on June 16th, the FOMC meeting collided with the Bank of Japan. Two major central banks simultaneously pull the trigger, leading to a double tightening of global liquidity. 4、 The US Iran negotiations are deadlocked, and geopolitical risks have not subsided Over the weekend, the negotiations between the United States and Iran were in a tug of war. Trump made significant revisions to the draft agreement, with core disagreements focused on the disposal of enriched uranium and control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that "current discussions on the progress of negotiations with the United States are all speculation". At the same time, Israel announced the expansion of its military operations in Lebanon, breaking the already fragile ceasefire situation. As a result, Brent crude oil rebounded to around $93 per barrel. Oil price rebound → Inflation expectations → US Treasury yields rise → Risk assets under pressure. Geopolitical risks have not subsided, and if an agreement is reached, the short-term pulse will be limited in height (75000 is still the ceiling); If it ruptures, it is directly bearish. 5、 The longest continuous outflow in ETF history: institutions are retreating From May 15th to 29th, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow for 10 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative withdrawal of over $2.9 billion, setting a record for the longest continuous outflow since the product was launched in January 2024. On May 27th, there was a net outflow of $733 million in a single day, and BlackRock IBIT had a daily outflow of $528 million, setting a record for the second largest daily outflow in history. Grayscale GBTC has accumulated a total outflow of over 3.5 billion US dollars in three weeks. This is not a panic among retail investors. The net redemptions for 10 consecutive trading days do not reflect short-term rebalancing, but rather a change in investor beliefs. When BlackRock is selling, who else is buying in the market? 6、 Next stop for Bitcoin's downward target price: 68950 The Fibonacci retracement from the November 2022 low of 15476 to the October 2025 high of 126000: 0.382 retracement 74487 has fallen below, 23.6% retracement 68950 is the next target, deeper target 64974. After the fall of 72000, 68950 is the next strong gravitational level in the theory of natural transactions. Key observation position: 7000-71000 is a short-term psychological threshold, which may involve technical withdrawal; 68950 is 23.6% Fibonacci, mid-term target; 64974 is a deeper target, if 68k is lost. 60000 is the 'first stop', 45000 is the 'final stop'. 7、 Trading Strategy Current operation: Watch around 71100, 72000 has broken, bearish trend is clear. Short selling conditions: rebound to 72000-73000 with a bearish signal, layout in batches. Stop loss 74000, target 70000 → 68950 → 65000. Short long condition: Do not go long temporarily. Unless there is a clear 4-hour bullish signal in the price range of 68500-69500. Mid line layout: There are already empty positions to continue holding, with a target of 70000 → 68950 → 65000. If the price rebounds to 72000-73000, it is an opportunity to add short positions. Position not exceeding 25%, leverage 2-5 times. Pay attention to variables: the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on June 16th (with a probability of 70%), whether the US Iran agreement will be implemented in the coming days, and the effectiveness of support ranging from 70000 to 71000. 8、 Conclusion and Summary The 72000 defense line fell, and the triple technical support was effectively breached. This is not a 'pin', it is a 'real break'. Polymarket delivery is a short-term disturbance that subsides after the delivery is completed. The fundamental driving force is still the continuous outflow of ETFs, the countdown to Japan's interest rate hike, and the lingering geopolitical risks - the triple macro bearish sentiment continues to suppress. The next stop for the price of Bitcoin is 68950. 60000 is the 'first stop', 45000 is the 'final stop'. On June 16th, there is a 70% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates, and the FOMC will clash on the same day, making it the most dangerous intersection for global monetary policy this year. Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis: 5th Wave Opened, 72000 Lost, Japan Rises Rates, Polymarket Deliveries