XAU Gold Market Analysis June 1, 2026.01 From a fundamental perspective, the medium to long-term logic of gold has not completely changed. Recently, the rebound of gold has not been smooth, mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar, the strengthening of real interest rates, and the market's repricing of the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. It is difficult for gold to directly emerge from a smooth unilateral upward trend until there is a significant decline in US inflation data. We need to pay attention to one issue in the near future: The escalating risks of the US Iran issue and the Strait of Hormuz have not significantly boosted gold, but rather made crude oil more sensitive to geopolitical risks. This indicates that short-term trading of gold is no longer entirely based on traditional safe haven asset logic. At least at this stage, the market is more focused on the US dollar, real interest rates, Federal Reserve expectations, and overall funding risk appetite. Even some media have begun to classify gold as a risky asset rather than a safe haven asset. So the main problem with gold now is that the market lacks a reason for funds to repurchase gold. The real drivers of gold's rise in the medium to long term may still be the US fiscal deficit, weakened monetary credit, global central bank purchases of gold, and rising expectations of future interest rate cuts. The drop from 4890 to 4365 does not mean that the logic of gold's medium to long-term upward trend has failed. At present, gold needs a new catalyst to redirect it from a "high volatility asset suppressed by interest rates" back to the main line of "resisting inflation, credit risk, and currency depreciation". Technically speaking, the pullback of gold since 4890 has been running for 41 days up to 4365. Both the callback amplitude and runtime have basically met the requirements. Recently, the focus has been on two areas: Above 4574 If the 4-hour K-line and daily line break through this position and do not fall back in the future, it can be confirmed that this round of adjustment has ended. Under this path, the rise starting from 4365 will be on the same level as the rise from 4100 to 4890, and the subsequent target will continue to be 5000+. Below 4480 If the daily entity falls below that position again and cannot return to 4480, it will increase the possibility of further adjustment. Under this path, 4365 may not be the final bottom. But as long as it does not fall below the 4265 line, the logic of gold's large-scale upward trend remains unchanged. After finding the endpoint of the pullback, there is still a chance to continue rising to 5000+in the future.