Let's talk about the pace and impact of the lifting of restricted shares after SpaceX's listing. The unconventional "phased+performance linked" release is not a traditional 180 day one size fits all approach. SpaceX has designed a tiered lock up period in its latest S-1 document to avoid a one-time massive sell-off that could impact stock prices 1) After the first financial report after IPO (Q2 report, most likely released in mid to early August between July and September), 20% of eligible restricted shares can be released. If the stock price rises by 30% compared to the IPO price, an additional 10% will be released; 2) Subsequently, according to a fixed schedule, approximately 7% will be released on days 70/90/105/120/135 after the IPO; 3) Another batch (approximately 28%) may be released after the Q3 financial report; 4) The remaining portion will be fully unlocked 180 days after the IPO (around mid December); 5) Lao Ma himself and some core investors have signed an additional 366 day (approximately 1 year) lock up period and will not participate in early release. Other employees/early investors follow the above steps. The overall design is more flexible than traditional IPOs, aiming to "quantify" the supply of liquidity and smooth the impact of unlocking on the market. Based on the above information, let's talk a few more points: 1. It can be seen that there was no lifting of restrictions during the two months from June 12th to mid August after the IPO, and it is highly likely that the stock price will perform during this period. Note that Lao Ma has set a performance standard. When releasing the financial report in mid to early August, if SpaceX's stock price is 30% higher than the IPO price, an additional 10% of restricted shares can be unlocked. 2. It can be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index within 15 trading days after IPO. It should be noted that considering that newly listed stocks are not fully tradable, the weight of entering the index is calculated based on three times the circulating market value of Nasdaq Huian. For example, if SpaceX has a 5% market capitalization after going public and a total market value of $1.8 trillion and a market capitalization of $90 billion in 15 trading days, then the weight of entering the Nasdaq 100 index is calculated based on $270 billion. This weight ratio naturally affects the allocation ratio of passive funds such as index ETFs. As the Q2 financial report is released and gradually released, the higher the circulation ratio, the higher the weight included in the index. It can be said that passive funds from index ETFs are used to buy and take on the selling pressure of ladder unlocking. 3. In what ways does the impact on the market manifest? 1) According to media reports, SpaceX's target IPO valuation is set at $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, with plans to raise approximately $75 billion. This was a large-scale IPO in history. When institutions and retail investors subscribe, they need to allocate funds from their existing positions, which will objectively form a certain liquidity extraction effect. It is estimated that this capital rotation effect may have already been reflected earlier during the roadshow period in the next one or two weeks. 2) The true safe period is within two months after the IPO, depending on the timing of the Q2 financial report release. From the time of listing to the first batch of lifting restrictions (about 2 months), the supply and demand environment with low circulation and index inclusion may support a certain price performance; In addition, the quality of its business itself is also very good, and its launch and Starlink businesses have been well established, with a profit of 8 billion US dollars in 25 years. The loss making xAI business can generate $15 billion in cash flow annually by leasing the data center to Authropic, which can also offset the losses of the AI business. Previously, here was https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/2057336046204109161? S=20 has been discussed before, and in fact, it is expected to be good for the market. 3) The unlocking rhythm of SpaceX is "loose at the beginning and tight at the end"; After the Q2 financial report until the end of the year, the lifting of restrictions on supply will gradually increase (especially if performance conditions are triggered), coupled with a high valuation background (about 95 times revenue), the market needs to gradually digest the real selling pressure. Although the overall design is gentler than the traditional one size fits all lifting of restrictions, due to its large size, stock price fluctuations will definitely amplify, and caution is needed during this period.