深潮TechFlow|5月 30, 2026 12:32
[BofA Warns of Overheated Optimism on AI: Market Betting on an 'AI WTO Moment']
Deep Tide TechFlow reports that on May 30, Bank of America Securities (BofA Securities) highlighted in its latest research report that the recent surge in global stock markets has revealed a rare disconnect in recent years between corporate earnings expectations and macroeconomic fundamentals. Data shows that the MSCI Global Index's forward 12-month earnings per share (EPS) expectations have risen approximately 9% over the past three months, translating to an annualized growth rate of nearly 40%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500's three-month earnings momentum has climbed to 12%, the highest level in nearly 40 years. However, at the same time, the global PMI index has continued to decline to around 50.5, its lowest point in nearly two years.
BofA noted that about two-thirds of the upward revision in earnings expectations this time stems from margin expansion rather than revenue growth. The forward 12-month profit margins for both European and global markets have risen to 13.9% and 11.4%, respectively, both at historical highs. The report likens the current market logic to China's accession to the WTO in 2001, when a massive influx of labor into the global economic system significantly boosted the share of corporate profits in GDP. Today, the market is betting that the large-scale adoption of AI technology will reduce the bargaining power of white-collar labor, thereby driving corporate profit margins into a new structural upward cycle.
However, BofA also outlined five major risks, including a global economic slowdown, demand contraction caused by AI-driven job displacement, rising inference costs for large models, slower-than-expected productivity gains, and potential large-scale unemployment triggering regulatory and political backlash. The report suggests that the market is currently pricing in an ideal scenario of 'strong demand and continuously record-high profit margins.' If the macroeconomic environment deteriorates or risk premiums rise, corporate earnings expectations and valuation levels may face recalibration.
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