律动BlockBeats|5月 30, 2026 12:09
[BCA Chief Discusses AI Frenzy and Timing the Peak: Current Bubble is a Profit Bubble, Not a Traditional Valuation Bubble; AI Demand Indicators Will Guide Market Progress]
BlockBeats News, May 30 – BCA Research Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin analyzed that the current AI bubble is primarily a profit bubble rather than a traditional valuation bubble. Unlike many past stock market bubbles characterized by rapid surges in price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, the valuations of AI-related sectors, particularly semiconductors, are relatively reasonable, but profit expectations are overly optimistic and unsustainable.
Historically, similar situations occurred with real estate developers and banks before the 2008 financial crisis: their apparent PE ratios were not high, but they relied on unsustainable profit surges. Once profits failed to materialize, the bubble burst. Peter pointed out that semiconductor sales have already shown parabolic growth. While current AI demand indicators do not yet suggest an imminent bubble burst, all bubbles eventually come to an end.
Peter emphasized that investors should not overly rely on Wall Street analysts' profit forecasts, as stock prices often drop significantly before profit expectations are revised downward. In past cycles, forward 12-month EPS typically began to decline a few months after stock prices peaked. Waiting to sell until EPS is revised downward could result in significant losses. The key to current investment lies in proactively monitoring changes in AI demand indicators.
Share To
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink