HTX DeepThink: The divergence between core PCE and CPI is expanding, and structural opportunities are also included in the bearish sentiment of the cryptocurrency market According to BlockBeats, on May 29th, Chloe (@ Chloe Talk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the current cryptocurrency market is in a more complex macro pricing environment. The divergence between two core inflation indicators in the United States is widening: the core PCE has risen to 3.3% and the core CPI is 2.8%. On the surface, inflation does not seem to be rising uncontrollably, but the Federal Reserve's focus on PCE is still significantly higher than its policy target of 2%, which is weakening the market's bet on interest rate cuts. This change coincides with Kevin Warsh taking over as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, further increasing the difficulty of policy communication. Previously, the market had certain expectations for a faster shift towards easing after the new chairman took office, especially against the backdrop of the Trump administration's clear desire to cut interest rates, risk assets tended to trade liquidity in advance. But the latest PCE data means that it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to quickly send dovish signals while inflation remains sticky. What is more noteworthy is that this round of inflationary pressure does not solely stem from traditional consumer demand, but is driven by the expansion of energy, tariffs, and AI capital expenditures. The rising prices of AI related software and equipment, food service prices, and the energy cost pressure brought about by the Iran conflict all make PCE better reflect the structural price pressure in the current economy than CPI. This means that even if CPI appears relatively mild, the Federal Reserve may still maintain a cautious stance. For the cryptocurrency market, this is not simply a bearish trend, but a phase of repricing liquidity expectations. BTC and mainstream assets will still be suppressed in the short term by the expectation of interest rate cuts, the maintenance of high real interest rates, and the strengthening of the US dollar; But if inflation mainly comes from supply shocks and structural capital expenditures, rather than overall overheated demand, the market may not necessarily enter a deep bear market, but is more likely to present an environment of high volatility, strong differentiation, and accelerated narrative rotation.