Bitcoin price fluctuates with the US Iran War, showing a clear two-tier differentiation trend In just two days, May will be over. Last week, many friends said they could see Bitcoin: native prices starting with six this month, but they didn't know if it could be realized. However, for me, it still depends on the direction of the war conflict between the United States and Iran. If we can continue to reach an agreement, it will still be helpful for Bitcoin to emerge from its decline. According to the latest data, the long-term holdings of Bitcoin are continuing to increase. Based on this growth rate, it is highly likely that they will exceed 15 million in June, which means that nearly 75% of BTC is held by long-term holders. But there will definitely be some people questioning why the price of BTC plummeted after $82000 while the US stock market continued to rise if so many Bitcoins did not participate in the turnover? This is a very practical issue, so I have also included the stock data of the exchange in the schematic diagram. Friends can clearly see that from BTC breaking through the historical high of long-term holdings to now, the total amount of long-term holdings has increased by 80000. And from a month ago when the lowest exchange stock was reached this year to now, the exchange stock has increased by nearly 50000 Bitcoin, with a very serious polarization. This means that although more BTC has been transferred to long-term holders or long-term holders, there is still a considerable amount transferred to the exchange for sale or already sold. The main reason for this situation is that long-term holders are not sensitive to prices and often choose not to sell at lower prices. They also have clear confidence in the future of Bitcoin, but the increase in long-term holdings does not necessarily mean an increase in purchasing power. Selling directly consumes liquidity in the market. Especially in times of poor liquidity, BTC is more sensitive to the macro, political, and economic conditions of the United States, and the US stock market is indeed rising better. It is normal for some short-term investors to leave and enter the embrace of the US stock market. So the current polarization is essentially that long-term funds are still locked up, while short-term funds are clearly defending. Especially before the clear outcome of the US Iran conflict, many funds, even if optimistic about BTC in the long run, will first transfer some of their positions to the exchange to maintain the ability to sell or hedge at any time. In addition, with the support of AI, technology giants, and buybacks in the US stock market, BTC lacks a new strong buying narrative. Therefore, for Bitcoin at present, the key is to see whether the war conflict can be eased and whether inflation in the United States is trending towards reduction. Bitget is here, VIP! Crypto、 US shares CFD， Global Advantage One Stop Layout