Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|May 28, 2026 17:47
Due to yesterday's sharp rise in Snowflake, the sentiment of the entire software sector has significantly increased, and IGV has finally returned to the 200 day moving average. For the software sector, this is one of the more important technical signals in recent months. If we can maintain a stable 200 day moving average in the future, the next step is likely to be to test the pressure levels around 105 and 110. Let's talk about a few core stocks. NOW has not effectively fallen below the 50 day moving average for 5 consecutive days, and the long-term support line that has been maintained for 9 years has returned after a false fall. As mentioned before, the position of 100 is crucial, and the current trend is somewhat similar to Microsoft's "false dip and then retracement" structure. In the short term, let's first see if we can break through the 100 day moving average of 112. The more important position is still the 200 day moving average of 132. Only when this position is effectively breached, will the market begin to re trade long-term trend reversals. MSFT is currently oscillating between 405-432, but it is evident that the volatility is contracting. After returning to the 100 day moving average, we will once again challenge the 200 day moving average of 436. If we can effectively break through this box in the future, the theoretical target position will look towards the gap around 480. After ORCL returned to 200, it has repeatedly tested its 200 day moving average and has not fallen below it, indicating a relatively strong structure. If it is confirmed to be stable in the future, the first goal will be to fill the gap around 220. However, the most important thing at this stage is to confirm whether this is a real breakthrough or a fake breakthrough driven by short-term emotions.
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