Opinion: The timeline for the Bitcoin quantum threat is roughly defined as within ten years, and it is extremely difficult for the community to reach consensus BlockBeats News: On May 28th, Sandy Peng, co-founder of Scroll, wrote an article stating that the quantum computing threat faced by Bitcoin is not fundamentally a physical problem, but a challenge to governance coordination. According to the white paper released by Google Quantum AI in March this year, using the optimized Shor algorithm to crack the Bitcoin secp256k1 elliptic curve only requires about 1200 logical qubits, which is nearly 20 times lower than the estimate five years ago. The official roadmap of IonQ plans to reach 1600 logical qubits by 2028, while IBM expects to launch the Blue Jay system with 2000 logical qubits by 2033. This means that the threat timeline is roughly clear - 'about ten years, or even shorter'. The attack will be carried out in waves, with the most vulnerable being the early P2PK format address, whose public key has been permanently exposed on the chain, including over a million bitcoins obtained by Satoshi Nakamoto's early mining, which cannot be migrated and protected due to no one holding the private key. In addition, the "collect first, decrypt later" attack may have been quietly underway, and intelligence agencies do not need to wait for the emergence of quantum computers, only need to store encrypted data for future cracking; Once quantum computers mature, unconfirmed transactions in the memory pool will also face real-time replacement attacks within a ten minute confirmation window. Although the anti quantum cryptography algorithm standard was released by NIST in 2024, the migration cost is high - research simulations show that network throughput will decrease by 52% -57%, while costs will increase by 2-3 times, and storage requirements will expand significantly. This is a 'defensive downgrade': costs are paid immediately, benefits are abstract and far in the future, which is extremely difficult for the Bitcoin community, which has been debating for nearly two years due to SegWit upgrades, to reach a consensus. In contrast, Vitalik has released the Ethereum Quantum Emergency Roadmap, allowing individual accounts to autonomously switch anti quantum signatures without the need for a network wide vote. Sandy Peng warns that Bitcoin will not return to zero, but its survival path is narrower than optimists think, and the quantum threat window almost overlaps with the 10-15 years required for the Bitcoin community to form consensus. It is recommended that early Bitcoin holders check the address format and migrate in a timely manner, and institutional investors should include the 'post quantum migration roadmap' in the due diligence framework. [Original link]