《 Bitcoin's weekly 5th wave is underway, and the real plunge is getting closer and closer! Short selling during a rebound is the best strategy! How to translate Dear friends, today BTC fell below 73000 and hit a low of 72700. The 75000 line of defense has been completely breached. On May 27th, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net daily outflow of $733 million, with BlackRock IBIT setting a record for the second largest daily outflow in history ($528 million). Net outflow for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling over 2 billion US dollars. This is not a 'retail panic', it is a systematic reduction of positions by ETF institutions. They must be more powerful and have a keen sense of smell than those so-called big Vs and KOLs. KOLs are not at all indicators for judging the trend and direction of Bitcoin prices, and market sentiment is only a reference for assisting in judging the market situation. If there are KOLs who suggest you buy Bitcoin and Ethereum at the current price, then you don't need to pay attention to these KOLs for the time being. They are likely not technical analysts or professional traders and analysts, and are just XXX KOLs who shout orders. 1、 72500 first test, technical backdraw appears 72500 is the convergence zone of Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level (71800-72000) and 100 day EMA (approximately 72000). After the price first touched the area, there was a pullback and it is currently around 73400. This is a technical pullback driven by short covering, not a trend reversal. The 4-hour chart shows that the trading volume did not significantly increase during the reverse drawing process. Long positions can be 'soft' and unable to organize effective counterattacks. 2、 Two paths after 72500 Path A (probability about 60%): Draw back to 73800-74500 and encounter resistance, continue to decline, and test 72500 again. If 72500 falls below, the next target is 68000-70000. Path B (probability about 40%): Shake for several days in the range of 72000-74000, waiting for the June catalyst (FOMC+Bank of Japan). Regardless of the route, 72500 is only the "first stop", not the "final stop". 3、 Macro suppression: Two triggers are counting down The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds has risen to over 5.14%, reaching a new high since 2007. The minutes of the FOMC meeting explicitly mentioned "interest rate hike" as a potential option for the first time. The probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 35%, compared to 2% a month ago. On June 16th, both the FOMC and the Bank of Japan faced a credibility test. This is the most dangerous intersection of global monetary policy this year. 4、 Short term trading strategy Currently around 73400, observe and do not open new positions. When the rebound is in place, short selling Bitcoin and Ethereum at high prices is the best strategy. The current price is still far from the true bottom price of the bear market, around 45000 yuan. They are good at setting stop losses and managing positions at high prices, and try to gain big with small gains. Short long condition: The price stabilizes again between 72000-72500, with a 4-hour long signal and a light long test. Target 74000-74500, stop loss 71500. Short selling conditions: Draw back to 73800-74500 to show a short signal, and lay out in batches. Stop loss 75500, target 72500 → 71500 → 70000. Continue to hold the mid line empty position, with a target of 72500 → 70000. If there is a bearish signal when the draw reaches 74000-74500, it is an opportunity to increase your position and go short. Don't hesitate or be afraid, just do it. 5、 Final risk reminder The first test of 72500 showed that the draw was normal. But the fact that there is no amount of backlash indicates that the bulls have not truly counterattacked. Don't look at the news, mainly focus on the volume and flow of funds. Draw back without quantity → continue to decline, the central trend direction is still downward, and the predicted ultimate target price of around 45000 is still early and far away. There is no need to rush to buy the bottom. You can patiently wait until around October this year, when Bitcoin falls below 50000, and then decide to enter the market to buy the bottom. BTC, Bitcoin 3D Integrated Trading Analysis, 5th Wave Opened