The cryptocurrency market is very weak …. Find some information and write a long article As SpaceX's IPO approaches, let's talk about some of our own views and opinions, which may not be correct. We welcome your guidance and discussion 1、 The possibility and potential crisis of a merger between SpaceX and Tesla? In fact, the merger is not groundless. According to CNBC, Musk has recently started discussing the possibility of merging the two with people around him, and even early SpaceX investors have said that the merger is only a matter of time. I think this combination is not unreasonable. Both companies belong to Musk and have shared engineers to assist each other in solving computing and power problems. SpaceX will purchase nearly $700 million worth of energy storage systems from Tesla between 2024 and 2025, with Cybertruck alone spending $130 million. Both parties are jointly developing a Terafab chip factory in Texas, with a construction cost of $25 billion! 80% of the computing power capacity is dedicated to SpaceX's space applications, while Tesla only accounts for the remaining 20%. From this perspective, these two companies are equivalent to the same company. Renowned Wall Street technology analyst Dan Ives said that the merger could make it easier for Musk to raise the massive capital needed to compete with Google in AI, while also fulfilling his long-standing dream of building an AI empire. But - the problem lies in this' but '. First, let's take a look at a number: SpaceX's prospectus defines itself as a "controlled company," meaning that shareholders do not enjoy the same governance protections as shareholders of typical Nasdaq listed companies. In other words, Musk holds 85% of the voting rights at SpaceX, and the board has no chance to say no. Here we can review Musk's historical record, which is already his fourth time leading transactions between his subsidiaries. First, in 2016, he acquired the struggling SolarCity with Tesla stock (Musk had significant interests in both companies). Then, in 2022, he bought Twitter for $44 billion. In 2025, he had xAI acquire X, which was then valued at only $9 billion, for $33 billion. Finally, this year, SpaceX bought xAI for $1.25 trillion. Tesla shareholders have actually filed a lawsuit against Musk regarding the xAI investment case, accusing him of violating trust obligations. So if Tesla and SpaceX really merge this time, the complexity of this lawsuit may set a record again. Legal experts believe that the possibility of this transaction triggering antitrust issues is not high, but the complexity at the shareholder level is the real problem, such as which company is the parent company? Conversion of stocks? Who decides on a reasonable stock exchange ratio? Ross Gerber, a long-term bullish investor in Tesla stock and founder of an investment advisory management company, put it more directly: This is not an equal merger at all, it's more like SpaceX eating Tesla. And Tesla shareholders are essentially tying their $1.6 trillion company to an entity with a negative loss of $4.9 billion, an AI department burning money without mercy, and a bad Twitter account, and the other party's voting structure leaves you with no room for countermeasures. Of course, some people also say that this is the next Apple - bringing hardware AI、 Energy and space are all integrated together. I don't completely disagree with this argument, but the premise is that the merger conditions need to be fair to Tesla shareholders. Based on Master's past record, it's difficult to have high expectations for this? 2、 The Impact of SpaceX IPO on Tesla's Valuation At present, it is known that SpaceX will start trading as early as 6/12, with the opportunity to become the largest IPO in history, and the world is holding its breath. Tesla actually has direct benefits in this IPO. How to put it? As of May this year, Tesla holds nearly 19 million SpaceX Class A shares, which were acquired through a $2 billion investment. Once SpaceX goes public, this huge asset will be priced in the open market and directly reflected on Tesla's books, which will have a positive valuation. Musk's aura If SpaceX's IPO valuation is as expected, Musk's ability to drive market sentiment in the past may extend to Tesla, pushing up the stock price again. Indeed, whether it is cryptocurrency or electric robots, as long as they are involved with him, the market loves to give a premium, and this is not the first time. There are hidden concerns about capital crowding out On the other hand, SpaceX's IPO may absorb some of the funds that originally flowed to Tesla. If SpaceX's market sentiment remains high, it may create selling pressure on Tesla in the short term. But there are also well-known long-term Tesla holders who warn that selling Tesla at this moment to grab SpaceX's IPO quota may result in being left empty handed - because the IPO quota that ordinary retail investors can grab is very limited. In fact, the final outcome still depends on the actual performance after the opening on 6/12, as well as Musk's next decision. Short term investors look at the opening on 6/12, medium-term investors look at whether Musk will initiate merger negotiations after the IPO, and long-term investors look at whether the merger terms are fair to existing Tesla shareholders. Nancy's personal views on the US stock market are not investment advice