Ultimately, the current market structure seems to be unfolding very similarly to the period around last year’s peak. Brutally enough, the entities driving Bitcoin price action once again spent a long period creating deceptive signals, giving market participants renewed hope and confidence. And in order to break that expectation, a major downside shock to the market may ultimately be unavoidable. If there were truly a chance for a bullish reversal, there should have been clear signs of meaningful accumulation throughout the February–April range. However, that was not the case. If this fear-driven environment had genuinely turned into a real buying opportunity as the saying “buy the fear” suggests and actual capital inflows had followed, I would not be making this argument now. But at this point, the situation looks extremely serious. From that perspective, for those hoping for a continued uptrend, it might have actually been healthier if the market had corrected sharply back in early April. Instead, the market has once again been given excessive hope and expectations.(mignolet)