律动BlockBeats|5月 28, 2026 07:49
[Analysis: Current Market Downside Squeeze Risk Greater Than Upside Short Squeeze, Long Positions Facing Increasing Funding Pressure]
BlockBeats News, May 28, crypto analyst Murphy stated that in the current perpetual contract market, longs are paying approximately $390,000 in funding fees to shorts per hour, significantly higher than the 7-day average of $220,000. This indicates a clear dominance of bullish sentiment in the market, with longs bearing higher holding costs. He pointed out that since May 12, when the 7-day average funding fee turned positive from negative, the premium for longs has continued to expand, particularly in recent days. High funding fees suggest that longs cannot sustain subsidizing shorts for an extended period. If prices fail to rebound quickly, some longs may close positions voluntarily due to cost pressures.
At the same time, open interest (OI) in the market has entered a downward trend, indicating that liquidations and position reductions are occurring. Murphy believes that if BTC breaks below a critical support level again, it could trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations, resulting in a typical "long squeeze" scenario. He noted that the current market state contrasts sharply with the sustained rally phase after April 14, 2026, when funding fees remained negative for an extended period, and shorts consistently paid fees to longs.
However, he also mentioned that extreme funding fees sometimes trigger a round of "long liquidation" before a reverse short squeeze occurs. Overall, he leans toward the view that the current market's "downside squeeze risk is greater than the upside short squeeze." Murphy cautioned that current spot demand and on-chain activity are both relatively low, and contract trading has become significantly more challenging. He advised caution when engaging in leveraged trading, while investors employing dollar-cost averaging in spot markets or gradually building long-term positions can maintain their strategies unchanged. [Original Link]
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