So many people want to watch PDD, so let me say a few more words. The growth of PDD's domestic business is basically the growth of the overall market, and no one has any additional expectations for this part. Therefore, the market's expectations for PDD mainly come from Temu. Let's take a look at Temu's own situation. Because PDD never discloses Temu's financial data separately, all the figures below are from third-party tracking agencies with a certain degree of error and are for reference only. The current state of Temu can be summarized in one sentence: the global market is still on the rise, but the US market has been hit hard, and the overall strategy has been forced to shift from "extremely low prices for direct mail from China" to "local fulfillment", resulting in a slowdown in growth rate. 1： First, let's take a look at the scale In terms of global monthly activity, data from early 2026 shows that Temu's global monthly activity exceeds 416 million, with approximately 133.6 million in the United States and 141.6 million in the European Union. GMV， Approximately $70.8 billion in 2024, with some predictions suggesting that it may exceed $100 billion by 2026. Pay attention to a key change: Nowadays, the EU accounts for 34% of Temu's global users, and monthly activity in Europe has surpassed that of the United States. This is the most important structural shift in the past year, with a clear focus on Europe. Therefore, Seattle KOLs do not understand this and can only see cheap and low-quality products. 2、 The heavy blow to the US market This is the core event, triggered by tariff policies: in August 2025, the Trump administration terminated the De Minimis rule, which previously allowed imported goods below $800 to be exempt from taxes, which is the basis for Shein and Temu to enter the United States at low prices. The consequences are serious: Between April and June 2025, Temu's monthly active life in the United States plummeted by 46%, and Reuters reported that its daily active life in the United States fell by about 48% in May 2025 compared to March. In response to this situation, Temu has turned to a local fulfillment model, using local warehouses and third-party sellers in the United States. Although this has eased the impact of tariffs, it has increased operating costs and eroded the price advantage on which it relied to rise. After switching to a semi managed supply model, the total volume of goods has decreased by 20% -30%. 3、 Strategies for Dealing with the US Market There are roughly three: 1. The focus has shifted to Europe, and the impact of de minimis has not yet fully landed. The expansion of Europe has brought about an 80% -100% increase in GMV, but the EU will gradually eliminate de minimis by 2026, threatening to repeat the American script 2. Localized fulfillment, utilizing local warehouses and sellers in the US and Europe 3. Lowering the target and expanding to more countries, Temu's 2025 target has been lowered to 75-80 billion US dollars. Currently, Temu only operates in about 100 countries, while AliExpress, Shein, and Amazon have already established presence in over 200 countries, leaving room for expansion 4、 What are the main competitors The most direct similar ones are the other two Chinese cross-border low-priced platforms: 1 Shein， Fast fashion is the main trend, but it has also been heavily impacted by the end of Minimis 2 AliExpress， Under Alibaba, a well-established cross-border platform with wider national coverage These three are the iron triangle of "China's low-priced e-commerce going global", and they are engaging in close combat. Another company is Amazon, and Amazon is taking the initiative to intercept them. Amazon has launched Amazon Haul and Amazon Bazaar, benchmarking against low-priced e-commerce and leveraging its own logistics infrastructure to provide faster delivery and more reliable returns. In terms of logistics reliability and product quality, it has already surpassed Temu, exposing the vulnerability of Temu's supply chain. This is Temu's most dangerous competitor because Amazon has what Temu lacks the most - a mature local fulfillment network. There is also a TikTok Shop with a different form, competing with Temu in social e-commerce and young user scenarios. Consumer survey results show that American men rate Shein<Temu<TikTok Shop, while American women rate Temu<Shein=TikTok Shop 5、 What companies in history have stored cash for a long time without repurchasing it 1. Amazon From its listing in 1997 to the 2010s, Bezos paid almost no dividends and rarely repurchased, investing all profits and cash flow back into its business (logistics centers, AWS, expansion). The reason is clear: he believes that the return on reinvestment is much higher than returning to shareholders, and firmly believes that free cash flow rather than book profit is the measure. Wall Street has been cursing for over a decade about 'not making money', but it has been proven that investing money back into the moat creates value far beyond dividends. 2. Microsoft Early Microsoft was similar, hoarding huge amounts of cash during its high-speed growth period in the 1990s and not distributing dividends for a long time, citing the need to maintain strategic flexibility and deal with the uncertainty of antitrust lawsuits. It was not until the slowdown in growth in 2003 that the first dividend was paid, and in 2004, the largest one-time special dividend in history was sent out, about 32 billion US dollars, which was a classic turning point of "being forced to return when mature". 3. Apple From the 2000s to 2012, they refused to participate in dividend based buybacks for a long time and hoarded billions of dollars in cash. Steve Jobs' reason was that Apple, which was on the brink of bankruptcy in the 1990s, had to keep a thick cash cushion to deal with any crisis, maintain strategic flexibility, and seize big opportunities at any time. It was not until Cook took over in 2012, under continuous pressure from radical investors such as Carl Icahn, that the largest ever dividend+buyback was launched. This turning point is almost the fate of all "cash hoarding style" companies - the high growth long-term market can tolerate it, but mature shareholders will no longer tolerate it. Tax/regulatory constraints Before the 2017 US tax reform, companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Cisco hoarded massive amounts of cash, but a considerable portion of it was tied up in the accounts of their overseas subsidiaries. The reason is that under the tax system in the United States at that time, overseas profits were subject to high taxes when remitted back to their home country. Therefore, these companies would rather keep their money "trapped" in places such as Ireland than remit it back to shareholders. At its peak, Apple's overseas cash exceeded $200 billion. After the 2017 tax reform provided a one-time low tax rate repatriation window, these companies began to massively repatriate their money back to the United States and immediately initiate massive buybacks. The case of PDD is the "China Concept Stock Version" of this logic. Money is not trapped overseas because of taxes, but because capital control is trapped in Chinese Mainland. Essentially, it is the same kind of structural constraint that "cash is visible but cannot be returned". 6、 PDD senior management's assessment of PDD itself The situation of overseas competition explains why PDD is tightly holding onto the over 400 billion yuan in cash. Temu is now in a multi line combat state where "the United States has been hit hard, forced to burn money for localization, Europe is facing the same policy suspension, and is also being directly intercepted by Amazon". Each battle line requires continuous investment. The financial VP Liu Jun's statement that 'investment is firm and long-term, but it will inevitably affect financial performance' refers to the Temu matter. So the senior management of PDD still judges PDD as a growth stage, requiring continuous investment rather than a mature stage. 7、 Is there any clue to verify Temu's situation Keeping a close eye on the positions of Li Lu and Duan Yongping, I believe that if Amazon is threatened, their relationship with Huang Zheng is likely to reduce their holdings in Amazon and increase their holdings in PDD. Conversely, if they sell, the PDD competition may fail Summary: Investors who are eager for high multiples of profits should not buy PDD and instead play with the current version of technology stocks