BTC Bear Market Progress Assessment 」： Latest data update on the proportion of 1y~3y chips Since the last update on the proportion of chips held between 1 and 3 years ago, It has been almost two months now, and the BTC trend is still maintaining a repulsive oscillation, Today I plan to talk to you again about the current situation of this indicator. Off topic: Fluctuating market conditions are basically a paradise for Liq traders, Friends interested in research can refer to the following citation. // The indicator in the attached figure is the proportion of market participants holding chips for 1-3 years, As usual, first help all new and old friends review the concept of this indicator ： ➡️ Grouping BTC chip holders based on 'holding time' ➡️ Capture chip holders with a holding time between 1y and 3y ➡️ Calculate the proportion of these people in the entire market ➡️ The lower the proportion, the fewer people in this ethnic group, usually caused by selling ➡️ The proportion has bottomed out (distribution completed), corresponding to the bull market peak of BTC ➡️ Peak in proportion (completed fundraising), corresponding to the bear market bottom of BTC As a cyclical indicator, the recent accurate performance is summarized as follows: In mid February 2025, the proportion will bottom out, and BTC will also peak simultaneously Starting from April 2025, the proportion will begin to flatten In early October 2025, the proportion will break away from "flattening" and begin to rise again The risk warning post I posted in October 2025 (with an increasing proportion) https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1981535929342054585 For a more complete concept of indicators, please refer to the following link, which provides detailed explanations ： https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1981535929342054585 // As shown in the attached figure: At present, the proportion of 1y-3y still maintains a very steady upward trend, The increase in proportion corresponds to the bear market stage in previous cycles, Therefore, in addition to being used to evaluate the top and bottom, this indicator can also be seen as a progress bar for bull and bear markets ⚗️」。 Since 2012, every bear market ending corresponds to the peak of the "1y-3y ratio", But from the attached figure, we can also clearly see that the top position of each proportion is slightly different, Therefore, we cannot predict how much the proportion will rise to reach its peak. However, the grasping range is possible: I have marked two orange horizontal lines on the attached image（ ）， Corresponding to approximately 0.35 and 0.6 of the respective proportions, this is BTC since 2012, The proportion of the bear market ending and forming its final bottom, so we can reasonably speculate: If the bear market ends, there is a high probability that the proportion will eventually fall between 0.35 and 0.6. At present, the '1y-3y ratio' is approximately 0.234, which is still some distance away from 0.35; But it is important to remind everyone that ： We cannot simply insist that this pattern must be repeated, Because the market environment for each BTC cycle is different, So the conclusion drawn solely from the method of induction is not rigorous. Talking about the 2021 Double Top: What is' Future Data Leakage '? https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1891335031177851380 For example, we can clearly see that: The 'bottom proportion value' of each cycle is gradually increasing, This can be attributed to the increasing number of long-term investors buying BTC and holding it, However, there is currently no such pattern for the top value, but even so, We still cannot completely ignore the changes in the external environment as a result. Similar concepts were discussed in detail in a post analyzing the BTC cycle last year, Interested friends can refer to the following link ： Exploring the cyclical nature of BTC's gradual disappearance from the perspective of on chain data https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1910515596497936757 Finally, although the proportion has risen slowly, at least the pace of increase is very stable, When the 'progress bar' approaches or even surpasses 0.35, Perhaps it means that Duojun is not far from the dawn of BTC The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone // Related reading resources Daily arch: Latest data update on the proportion of chips held for 1-3 years https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2031184918043308235/ Asian investors chase gains and then decline, while US investment sentiment shows no signs of rebounding https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2059088742678515882 Small level Liq designated blasting: waiting for rebound, maintaining the original plan https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2058726455543263265 The Last Trembling Bottom Picking Series (15): Latest Data from the "Four Big Deep Bear Bottom Picking Models" https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2058726455543263265