The story of BTC has reached this round, already dancing on its own urn. 1. The cycle narrative is dead. The ETF dividend will be redeemed in one go, halved, and the marginal decrease will decrease in each round. The next story that can support the valuation is still being drawn in the PPT. The relay person is missing. 80% are locked in ETFs, treasury stocks, and old HODLers, and the entry window for retail investors has long closed. The biggest product strength in the cryptocurrency industry is "making people feel like they can make money", which is now unplugged. 3. The reflexivity of treasury stocks has officially begun. MSTR has reduced its debt for Saylor today, while BMNR has entered the deleverage channel. The more BTC falls, the more the vault PE collapses, and the more the vault collapses, the more BTC falls - a textbook level downward spiral. 4. The funds have already left. Seven giants+AI computing power+gold, risk on is sexier than BTC, risk off is safer than BTC, and there is no pain from both sides. 5. Tail risk pricing is 0. Quantum Kaizhong Bencong's currency, regulatory arbitrage of ETF, Tether explosion - the market probability is 0, which is the same as Luna's pre accident valuation method. Over the past fifteen years, I have always said 'this time is different'. This time is indeed different - I can't even tell a 'different' story. BTC