RamenPanda
RamenPanda|5月 26, 2026 16:16
Micron Technology Inc Long term agreements (LTAs) have made progress; Target price raised to $1625, EPS maintained well above $100 summary With long-term agreements (LTAs) now firmly established in most areas of the industry, we have once again raised our forecast for the 2027-2029 calendar year (C2027-2029) and expect EPS to comfortably remain above $100 throughout the entire period, while Micron will generate over $400 billion in free cash flow (FCF) during the same period. We believe that the market will begin to give the stock a more 'normal' valuation multiple, and as more details emerge about the structural changes brought by artificial intelligence (AI) to the entire storage chip industry, Micron will continue to re evaluate upwards. Our supply chain research on Long Term Agreements (LTAs) in the storage industry indicates that up to 30% of DDR shipments across the industry will soon be locked in at slightly lower prices than current levels, and these agreements will enable Micron to trade a portion of its recent revenue for demand visibility and a smoother profit curve. Therefore, we have raised our EPS forecast for the C27/28/29 calendar year to $155/167/117 (previously $133/122/77) - and considering that investors typically give premium rewards for the persistence and visibility of performance, we believe that Micron's EPS remained above $100 throughout the entire C2029 calendar year, which is a strong example of this persistent and structural change and should support the stock valuation to move closer to a broader semiconductor multiple. In summary, we have raised our target price from $535 to $1625, based on a future twelve month (NTM) P/E ratio of approximately 15 times (previously using the segment sum valuation method SoTP), corresponding to a C2029 annual EPS of $117 (discounted for one year), and reaffirmed our "buy" rating.
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