BTC Market Evening Report: Narrow Range Fluctuations in Prices, Should We Wait for the Official Announcement of the US Iran Agreement and Choose Our Direction? 】 The price of Bitcoin has been relatively stable in the past two days, with small fluctuations and momentum. What is the intention behind this? Just wait for the implementation of the US Iran agreement! Let's first look at the data and quantitative analysis. 1. A set of core data overview. The current price range for BTC is between 76400-77700, ETF has had a net outflow for 6 consecutive days, with a cumulative outflow of 2.26 billion US dollars over the past two weeks; Trump Media Company transfers 2650 BTC to the exchange; Walsh officially takes office as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, raising expectations of interest rate hikes; The entrusted buying and selling order amounts on the order book are evenly matched, as shown in Figure 2. 2. BTC market status: shrinking volume consolidation, etc. The price of Bitcoin fluctuates narrowly within the range of 76500-77500, which is the 0.383-0.5 range of the Fibonacci uptrend channel. As shown in Figure 1, it can be seen that the natural trading theory method is very practical and accurate. The trading volume has been continuously shrinking for 4 hours. The daily chart continues to show small entity candlesticks, presenting a "flat price and shrinking volume" structure. This is not bottoming out, it is the 'calm before the storm' - both long and short sides are waiting for the landing of the US Iran agreement. Trump Media Company transferred 2650 BTC worth approximately $205 million to http://(Crypto. com). The company stated that it is "transferring rather than selling", but the funds have arrived at the exchange address, increasing short-term supply pressure. 3. The US Iran agreement: The official countdown will be announced tomorrow. According to Al Jazeera on May 26th, with the mediation of Qatar, the United States and Iran have reached an understanding on the issue of frozen financial assets. According to sources, it is highly likely that both parties will announce an agreement tomorrow (May 27th). The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran has joined the delegation, and financial unfreezing is the core issue. The impact on BTC: ✅ Official announcement (probability 60-70%) → Pulse to 78000-79500 before falling back (all positive news); ⚠️ Official announcement delayed (probability 20-25%) → retracement to 75600-76000; ❌ Negotiation breakdown (probability 10-15%) → direct acceleration of decline; The 78000-79000 area has been verified four times as a phased iron roof. The protocol pulse height is likely to be lower than the reaction on May 23rd when Trump announced that BTC was pulled from 74200 to 77200. 4. Macro tug of war: Oil prices have fallen, but expectations of interest rate hikes have come. Bitcoin is caught in a macro tug of war: on one hand, there is the hope of a drop in oil prices and interest rate cuts brought about by the US Iran agreement, while on the other hand, there is the risk of interest rate hikes released by the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. The futures market shows that the probability of a rate hike before December has risen to over 54%, with only a 1.5% chance of a rate cut remaining. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds once reached an intra year high of 4.54%. 5. ETF continues to flow out: institutions retreat. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has accumulated a net outflow of $2.26 billion over the past two weeks, ending the previous seven consecutive weeks of net inflows. BlackRock's IBIT holdings have decreased from 812000 to 800000, still the absolute market leader (accounting for approximately 62%), but the outflow itself indicates that the institution is reducing its risk exposure. See Figure 3. But don't forget, Bank of America increased its holdings of IBIT to $37.3 million in the first quarter. Large financial institutions are still engaged in long-term allocation, with both short-term pressure and long-term layout coexisting. 6. Short term and medium-term trading strategies. Current operation: Empty position and wait for protocol pulse. Short term strategy: ✅ Short long condition: Do not go long temporarily. If the price rebounds and stabilizes at 76000-76400, you can try taking a long position and fast in and out. Target 77500-78000, stop loss 75800. ✅ Short selling conditions: rebound to 78000-79500 with a bearish signal, layout in batches. Stop loss 80500, target 76500 → 75600. Mid line empty position: There are already empty positions to continue holding. If the protocol pulse reaches 78500-79500, it is an opportunity to add empty positions. Position not exceeding 25%, leverage 2-5 times. 7. The final warm reminder 79500 is the position of 'visible, tangible, but unstable'. The price may briefly touch around 79500 under the pulse of the agreement announcement, but it is difficult to effectively break through and stabilize. 78000-78500 is a more realistic 'ceiling'. If it really reaches around 79500, it is a "free money slot" for empty orders, not a reason to chase after more. Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis: The 5th Wave of US Iran Negotiations Begins