Wintermute: Bitcoin's key support level is in the range of $75000 to $76000, and the market structure has not completely turned bad BlockBeats news, on May 26th, Wintermute posted that the macro environment significantly improved last week, with Brent crude oil falling 9% due to easing tensions in Iran, 10-year US Treasury yields falling to 4.50%, and US stocks rising for the eighth consecutive week and reaching a new historical high, easing energy driven inflationary pressures. But consumer concerns have not subsided, with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index falling to a historic low of 44.8 and one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.8%. At the same time, the manufacturing PMI reached a four-year high in May, with input costs rising to the highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence in commodity inflation. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's April meeting also sent a signal that "if inflation persists, further policy tightening may occur", and the market has not fully taken into account hawkish expectations. In terms of technology stocks, Nvidia delivered an explosive financial report: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 85%, data center business grew by 92%, and announced a $80 billion buyback and a 25 fold dividend increase. More importantly, its Q2 guidance has defaulted to zero revenue for Chinese data centers, indicating a stronger demand for actual AI. However, the market response was unusually cold, and the stock price remained almost unchanged after hours, reflecting that AI trading has entered the "perfect pricing" stage, and simply exceeding expectations is no longer enough to continue driving the market. This is an important warning for risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market - if AI momentum weakens, weak consumption, sticky inflation, and potential hawkish Federal Reserve will once again dominate the market narrative. Compared to the strong performance of the US stock market, the cryptocurrency market has clearly fallen behind. BTC hovered around $76000 and ETH fell to $2140, both of which did not follow the rise of risky assets. Over the past two weeks, BTC spot ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of over $2 billion, with institutional funds significantly cooling down and marginal risk appetite flowing back into AI stocks rather than cryptocurrency assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken and hit a 10 month low, while a few strong assets against the trend are HYPE, whose single day ETF inflow set a record of $25.5 million, and there are signs of large institutional wallets continuing to attract funds. The current market structure has not completely deteriorated, and long-term holders are still increasing their holdings while trading platform reserves remain low. However, the short-term capital flow that determines prices is turning negative. The current key support level for BTC is between $75000 and $76000. Once it falls, the market may quickly retrace to the $70000 to $72000 range; If we maintain stability, there is still a chance to challenge $80000 again. [Original link]