Latest progress of US Iran negotiations (5.23-5.26) panoramic review In the past 72 hours, the diplomatic game between the United States and Iran has staged a classic "roller coaster" scene. The core facts and underlying logic are all here, from Trump's high-profile claim that "the agreement is basically negotiated," to the extreme tug of war between the two sides in Doha, and to the latest "expectation of oil recovery. 5/23 (Saturday): Optimism peaks Trump suddenly made a statement on Truth Social: the agreement is "largely negotiated," with a core focus on opening up the Strait of Hormuz and intensive conversations with leaders of eight Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Iranian spokesperson also acknowledged that they are in the "finalization stage" of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and the differences have narrowed. The market once believed that the official signature could be made on Monday, May 25th. ⚡ 5/24 (Sunday): Trump style 'sharp turn' Before stepping in, Trump suddenly took the initiative to cool down on social media: "I have informed the negotiators not to rush to reach an agreement, they must take the time to get things done Senior US officials pour cold water on NBC News: the agreement will not be signed today. This is a typical "Trump style" negotiation art (The Art of the Deal) - exerting extreme pressure at the last minute to force the other party to hand over more chips. 5/25 (Monday): Battlefield shifts to Doha, core game points exposed Iran's Chief Negotiator, Khaliyev (re elected as Speaker on the same day, authorized for renewal), led a high-level delegation (including Foreign Minister and Central Bank Governor) to parachute into Doha, Qatar. Core checkpoint: unfreezing assets. The accompanying central bank governor confirmed Iran's demand to immediately release some overseas funds at the beginning of the agreement announcement. Both sides publicly exchanged harsh words: Iranian officials changed their statement, 'No one can say that an agreement is about to be signed'; Trump reiterated in his memorial speech that the blockade will remain in full effect until the agreement is finally verified. Expansion 1: Summary of Progress in US Iran Peace Talks The protocol framework is already a 'clear card', leaving only the tail risk game At present, the basic agenda of the two countries is clear: the United States wants to open up the strait and control highly enriched uranium (so-called "nuclear dust"); Iran wants to lift port blockades and immediately retrieve some frozen assets. The probable direction of this temporary agreement (tentatively set for 60 days) has not changed, and the current fluctuations are a bargaining chip for both parties in the specific implementation and fine-tuning stage. Expansion 2: Expected recovery of crude oil supply chain: If the strait is successfully opened, there will be a significant delay in the recovery of the global crude oil supply chain: White House Economic Advisor Hassett: Global refineries can resume supply in about 1-2 months. International Energy Agency (IEA): Stable exports and comprehensive mine clearance require at least 2-3 months. This means that even if an agreement is reached this week, substantial supply increases will not occur until July or August at the earliest, and caution should be exercised against the excessive pressure of short-term market sentiment on oil prices. Expansion 3: Key Risk Radar Doha News in the Next 48 Hours: Follow Qatar's official or three major news agencies for updates on reaching a compromise on the "1-2 terms". • Asset unfreezing ratio: If the United States agrees to release more than 25% of assets in the first phase, it means that the US has made substantial concessions Crypto Macro US Iran talks on crude oil, Trump