Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|May 25, 2026 22:34
The most noteworthy things in SpaceX's prospectus - not just rockets and Starlink SpaceX has officially submitted its prospectus, with an expected fundraising of $75 billion and a potential IPO valuation of over $2 trillion. This will be the largest IPO in human history. But if you only see 'Rocket Company IPO', you miss out on what's really interesting in the prospectus. The first thing: Anthropic's contract changes SpaceX's revenue structure The prospectus reveals that Anthropic will purchase computing power from SpaceX for $1.25 billion per month, with a contract expiring in May 2029 and a total value of approximately $45 billion over three years. SpaceX's total revenue for the year 2025 is $18.7 billion, and the annualized revenue from this contract is $15 billion, which alone can increase the company's revenue by more than 80% and surpass Starlink, becoming SpaceX's largest single source of revenue. After going public, Musk posted that he is in talks with multiple companies for similar contracts. Google, as an early shareholder of SpaceX, is likely to be the next major customer. SpaceX is transitioning towards a space computing infrastructure platform. The second thing: Starlink is the true foundation that supports a valuation of 2 trillion yuan Many people think that SpaceX makes money from rockets. However, in reality, the rocket launch business will generate a full year revenue of 4 billion US dollars in 2025, but its operating profit will be negative at 650 million US dollars. The reason is that the starship consumes about $3 billion in research and development expenses every year, and the total investment in the project has exceeded $15 billion. The real money maker is Starlink. In 2025, Starlink's revenue will be 11.4 billion US dollars, with an operating profit of 4.4 billion US dollars and a profit margin of nearly 39%. At present, Starlink covers 164 countries and has over 9600 satellites in orbit, accounting for 75% of all operational satellites worldwide. The number of subscribed users has doubled from 5 million in March 2025 to 10.3 million in March this year. Starlink provides stable cash flow, while Rocket and AI continue to burn money. The entire funding cycle of SpaceX is essentially supported by Starlink. The timing of this IPO is very indicative of the problem The prospectus shows that SpaceX's long-term debt is as high as $29.1 billion, with a debt to equity ratio of 84%. Behind it is a $20 billion bridge loan to support the development of starships and the construction of space computing infrastructure. A significant portion of the $75 billion raised through the IPO will be used to repay the $20 billion bridge loan. After completion, the debt to equity ratio will plummet from 84% to below 10%. It is worth noting that the corresponding relationship between the fundraising scale and the existing debt scale is very close. After going public, SpaceX's capital structure will undergo a fundamental change - from a highly leveraged heavy asset company to a low debt growth technology platform. The fourth thing: Starships are the prerequisite for all stories SpaceX's next-generation satellite products - the larger V3 broadband Starlink, the true mobile phone direct satellite, and the orbital AI computing satellite mentioned in the prospectus - all rely on starships for launch. The transport capacity of Falcon 9 can no longer keep up. If the starship cannot be successfully commercialized in the second half of 2026, almost all subsequent business narratives will have to be postponed. This is the single largest risk variable in the entire 2 trillion valuation. On the second day after the submission of the prospectus, the V3 version of the starship completed its 12th test flight, completed the first flight verification of the new launch pad, and successfully landed under controlled conditions in the Indian Ocean. Fifth thing: Before investing in SpaceX, there is one thing to think about clearly 85.1% of voting rights, 5 directors elected separately from Class B shares, class action lawsuits blocked by bylaws, and extremely high proposal thresholds - may sound scary, but to be honest, most retail investors don't buy stocks for the sake of speaking rights. The only thing that really needs to be clarified is whether you believe Musk can make this happen. If believed, these governance structures are actually an advantage - no one will stop him halfway to make short-term decisions. If uncertain, then this structure does not have any external error correction mechanism, and once the direction is wrong, no one can stop it. Buying SpaceX is essentially a long-term assessment of an individual, not an investment in an ordinary listed company. The sixth thing: The lock up period and unlocking time points are worth paying attention to Musk himself has locked in for 365 days and cannot sell within one year after going public. Other early institutional investors typically lock in for 180 days, but the charter includes a phased early release mechanism. If calculated based on the listing on June 12th, there will be the first wave of early investors cashing out in early August this year (after the release of the second quarter report), and the second wave around November. The stock price may be under pressure during this period, which is a time point that needs to be considered in advance. Regarding the relationship between Tesla and SpaceX Tesla currently holds approximately 19 million SpaceX Class A shares. After SpaceX goes public, this shareholding will be directly reflected on Tesla's balance sheet, resulting in a revaluation. From the perspective of asset correlation, there exists such a connection between the two companies. As for what this connection means for investment decisions, everyone's judgment will be different, and it needs to be considered based on their own position and cost. summary SpaceX is a company that is transitioning from a rocket company to a space computing infrastructure platform. Starlink provides stable cash flow, Anthropic contract validates the computing power leasing business model, and Starship is the pivot to leverage all business in the next stage. But the valuation of 2 trillion yuan, 84% historical debt ratio, highly centralized control structure, and uncertainty of starship test flights are all factors that need to be carefully weighed before making investment decisions. This is more like a long-term option betting on whether Musk can achieve his space vision. SpaceX SPCX IPO Starlink
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