BitUnix analyst: The progress of the US Iran ceasefire continues to advance, but the global market is no longer only concerned about war According to BlockBeats, on May 25th, although the focus of the global market was still on the US Iran negotiations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the real concern for funds was another deeper issue - whether global central banks still have the ability to maintain market stability as they have in the past decade when high inflation, high interest rates, and sovereign debt risks coexist. At present, although the US Iran agreement is gradually emerging, including the limited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the 60 day framework agreement, and the resumption of nuclear negotiations, there are still significant differences between the two sides on core issues such as highly enriched uranium, lifting of sanctions, asset unfreezing, and the Lebanese front. This represents that although the market has started to trade 'war cooling down', funds have not truly returned to a comprehensive risk appetite mode. More importantly, the market is now experiencing another phenomenon that has rarely occurred in the past two years - 'the expectation of interest rate hikes has returned'. The US interest rate futures market has begun to price the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike as early as October, with a full 25 basis point room for rate hikes by the end of the year. Federal Reserve Governor Waller has made it clear that if inflation expectations lose their anchor, the Fed still needs to raise interest rates; The European Central Bank has started discussing the possibility of a June interest rate hike more directly internally. This means that the narrative of "interest rate cuts to save the market" that the market had hoped for is being replaced by "long-term high interest rates". And the real core behind this is that the global bond market has begun to rebel against the logic of "central banks always providing a bottom line" of the past decade. Erian actually pointed out the biggest risk at present: in the past, whether it was financial crises, epidemics, or wars, the market believed that the central bank would eventually rescue risky assets through interest rate cuts, QE, and fiscal stimulus, so "buying on dips" became the most successful trading model in the world. But now, high inflation, high debt, and sovereign credit pressure are beginning to limit the central bank's intervention ability, and the market is facing for the first time a situation where "policies want to save, but may not be able to save". This is also the reason for the significant fragmentation of global assets in recent times. On the one hand, AI and technology stocks in the US still maintain high levels due to liquidity inertia and growth expectations; On the other hand, US bond yields, Japanese long-term bonds, and European bond markets have started to experience severe fluctuations simultaneously. This represents a reassessment of funds: if the central bank can no longer provide unlimited liquidity in the future, all overvalued assets will face pressure from "real interest rates" and "discounted cash flows" again. In terms of the cryptocurrency market, BTC will still be supported by the risk appetite recovery brought about by the cooling of the Middle East situation in the short term. However, if the global interest rate market continues to reflect the expectation of interest rate hikes in the future, high leverage and high valuation assets will still face liquidity contraction pressure. The biggest variable in the market at present is not just war, but the influence of global policy tools on the market, whether it is starting to decline.