There has never been an industry whose success has been determined by so few variables as Bitcoin mining Hashrate Bitcoin Price Electricity Price ASICS Price Block reward (and fees) Ancillary revenue That's it 6 factors Not in-store-spend Not Customer conversion rates Not market penetration Not demographic data And no sales and marketing campaign or customer outreach campaign will change this You're at the mercy of 6 variables, 4 of which you have no control over, save a small bit of wiggle-room that you can create by negotiation in the case of ASICS price. The only variables you can control is electricity price and ancillary revenue source. (More about this later) For this reason, we can do something we've never been able to do for any industry ever We can read the future non-speculatively, because it already exists today In Europe, electricity prices are astronomically high. So much so, that it effectively simulates a future reality where the economics are similar to a US-based mining company one halving into the future (with half the block reward). Yet, Bitcoin mining thrives in Europe: the most hostile electricity-price environment, regulatory, environment and tax environment in the world towards Bitcoin mining. You'd never know it, because it happens mostly under the radar, and it is (legitimately) called "datacenters", "grid stabilization services", and "heat reuse" to avoid regulatory hostility and taxation hostility. Bitcoin mining thrives here because of one factor alone: their ancillary revenue is very high compared to the rest of the world. So high in fact that many European mining companies are more profitable than their US counterparts This is why I have no fear about the future of Bitcoin mining This is why discussions about security budget are redundant: Bitcoin doesn't need one This is why we don't need to have speculative discussions about the direction of Bitcoin mining. Europe already ran that simulation, and the data is in. The future of Bitcoin mining is that it seeks out stranded energy at near zero marginal cost. The future of Bitcoin mining is that it stabilizes grids and recycles heat as a primary revenue source, with the blockreward and fees being the by-product The future of Bitcoin mining is that it solves hard problems the world desparately needs - keeping our grid safe and stable, making AI load flexible, reducing harmful methane pollution, stopping the wasteful practice of renewable energy curtailment in ways that benefit whole communities The future of Bitcoin mining is that it is the usecase of Bitcoin that the world sees and embraces first.(Daniel Batten)