Latest Developments in US Iran Negotiations and Prediction of Bitcoin Market Trends I have been closely monitoring the latest developments in the US Iran negotiations these days, as its impact on the short-term price trend of Bitcoin cannot be ignored. Based on my own search for information and professional analysis, I have summarized and predicted as follows. If there are any mistakes, please feel free to share your thoughts and ideas 1、 Core progress of negotiations: Memorandum of Understanding enters final draft stage On May 23, Trump announced that the agreement was "basically negotiated" and Iran confirmed that it was in the final stage of finalizing the memorandum of understanding. It is expected to be officially announced within the next 3-4 days (around May 27th). But don't get too excited too early - none of the core disagreements have been resolved: Control of the Strait of Hormuz: Trump said 'the strait will open', but Iran's Fars News Agency immediately retaliated, saying Trump's statement is' not true '. Iran agrees to restore the number of ships passing through to pre war levels, but the strait will continue to be controlled by Iran. The Strait of Hormuz has no relationship with the United States, and this issue is purely an internal matter between Iran and the countries along the strait Enriched uranium inventory: The United States requires high enriched uranium to be transferred for destruction. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has ordered that uranium close to weapon grade must be kept within the country and never exported. The New York Times reported that the proposed agreement does not specify how Iran will abandon its enriched uranium stockpile, and all details have been postponed until the next round of negotiations. Sanctions lifted: Iran demands full lifting of sanctions and release of frozen assets. The United States only agreed to unfreeze some assets and retain core sanctions. So the essence of the agreement is to "advance in three stages": Phase 1 (next 3-4 days): Memorandum of Understanding signed, ceasefire extended for 60 days, gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of US maritime blockade, and unfreezing of some Iranian assets. Phase 2 (within a 60 day window): Nuclear negotiations - suspension of uranium enrichment activities, plan for handling enriched uranium inventories, and verification mechanisms. This is the most divergent part. Phase 3 (60 days later): Final peace agreement - comprehensive lifting of sanctions, long-term ceasefire, regional security arrangements. The variable is the largest. As you said, "The second round of negotiations will open up the strait, and even the United States will withdraw its troops. The early stage of the 60 day negotiations will be relatively optimistic, but for the final US Iran peace agreement, in the second half of the 60 day period, the US and Iran will find it difficult to reach an agreement in the short term 2、 The deduction path of Bitcoin Short term (3-5 days in the future): There will be a pulse of agreement signing, but the height is limited. The market has repeatedly priced the narrative of "agreement reached" - rumors of a memorandum on May 6th have increased from 76k to 82k, draft rumors on May 22nd have increased from 76.5k to 78.2k, and Trump announced on May 23rd that it has increased from 74.2k to 77.2k. The pulse is getting weaker each time. The pulse at the time of official signing is likely lower than the reaction on the day Trump announced it. The area between 78000-78500 has been verified as an iron top four times, and the protocol pulse limit is between 78500-79500. Mid term (within a 60 day window): Strait opening → oil price decline → inflation expectations cooling down → US Treasury yields may fall. The phased improvement of the macro environment is a medium-term bullish factor for Bitcoin. Your target for short selling energy is $85 or even $75-80, which I think is reasonable. Once the strait resumes navigation, pre war navigation levels can be restored within 30 days, and energy prices will further decline. Long term (60 days later): Nuclear negotiations are the real test. Enriching uranium and lifting sanctions are core disagreements that cannot be resolved within 60 days. If the negotiations reach a deadlock at that time, the geopolitical risk premium will be re included in the price. 3、 The impact on the layout of BTC's mid line short position strategy The protocol pulse reaches 78000-79500, which is an opportunity for short orders to add positions, not a reason to chase after long positions. However, within the 60 day window after the agreement is signed, the macroeconomic improvement brought about by the decline in oil prices and the fall in US Treasury bonds may require a phased adjustment strategy. Don't be blinded by protocol messages, and don't ignore macro changes within the 60 day window. For more professional and detailed analysis, please follow my upcoming market analysis article. Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis US Iran Negotiations Hormuz Strait Cryptocurrency Market