Has the progress of the US Iran negotiations reached a critical juncture? The biggest news last night was the progress of the US Iraq negotiations. Let's first look at the statements made by all sides: 1) Trump pushed the expectations directly to the front of the stage. He publicly stated that the peace memorandum related to Iran has been basically negotiated, and the final details are being discussed. He also said that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened; He also said that he talked with leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain and other regions, and also talked with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, saying that progress was good. Both AP and Reuters define this as a 'near but incomplete' state, rather than a formal signing. 2) Iran did not deny the progress of negotiations, but immediately denied the US version of 'opening up Hormuz'. Iran's semi official Fars report stated that even with an agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will still be under Iranian management, and claimed that Trump's statement about the opening of the strait is inconsistent with reality; Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei referred to the current text as a "framework agreement," stating that the focus is on ending the war, lifting sanctions, and addressing issues that Iran considers important, and that the nuclear issue is not the current stage of negotiations. 3) The most important thing is that Pakistan's mediation has made substantial progress. Pakistan's Army Chief of Staff, Marshal Asim Munir, had over 24 hours of high-level contacts with the Iranian President, Speaker of Parliament, Foreign Minister, Interior Minister, and others in Tehran. Pakistan stated that they have made encouraging progress in negotiations and are moving towards a final agreement; Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif subsequently expressed his hope to host the next round of US Iran peace talks "soon". Yesterday here https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/20582025434870989994? S=20 has talked about it before, and I personally think Pakistan's statement is the most important. Firstly, Munir's words carry weight, and at the same time, he has met with representatives of Iran's moderate and hardline factions. 4) Compared with Trump, US Secretary of State Rubio said that "progress has been made, but the bottom line has not changed". Rubio said that there has been some progress in the negotiations, and there may be news on the same day, tomorrow, or a few days in the future; But he also emphasized that the US conditions include Iran not obtaining nuclear weapons, Hormuz must be opened free of charge, Iran must hand over enriched uranium, and mentioned that if Iran refuses to open the strait, the US and its allies need "Plan B. 5) Iran's hardliners still have a tough stance. Iranian Speaker and key negotiator Qalibaf told Munir that the United States is not an honest negotiating party and Iran will not compromise on "national rights". He also warned that if the United States restarts the war, Iran's counterattack will be even more intense; Reuters also pointed out that Iran still maintains near weapon grade enriched uranium stockpiles and missile, drone, and regional agent capabilities What do you think of putting this information together? 1. As we have been discussing before, both the US and Iran have little interest in using force, and the probability of further military escalation is also low. Both sides are unwilling to return to war. So the probability of reaching an agreement in the end is high, but we are not sure what the timeline and path will be to reach this agreement? 2. The statements from various parties last night gave us a possible path. It is a phased framework agreement The first step is to officially end or extend the current state of war/ceasefire; The second step is to address the issues of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships; The third step is to open a follow-up negotiation window of about 30 to 60 days, and then discuss more difficult issues such as nuclear issues, sanctions, and uranium enrichment. The framework reported by Reuters is "ending the war - resolving Hormuz - opening broader agreement negotiations", The version reported by AP also includes the official announcement of the end of the war, the restoration of cross-strait navigation, the end of port blockades by the United States, and the nuclear negotiations that followed for about two months. The report from the Financial Times last night is essentially similar. 3. Although Iran emphasized its sovereignty and management over the Strait of Hormuz last night, it also acknowledged that allowing the number of ships passing through the Strait to return to pre war levels is a significant advantage. As for whether to pay some fees, the capital market is not very concerned, at least not worried about the oil crisis. Iran's statement is very clever, allowing dozens of oil tankers and container ships to pass through the strait first (in fact, there are more than 20 merchant ships and oil tankers passing through the strait every day these days), which can alleviate the anxiety of the international financial market, and then buy time to prolong the negotiations. As long as the oil can be shipped out and the oil price rises slightly, Trump's anxiety can be alleviated, and he will not be forced to use violence again. Because the longer the delay, the more impatient Trump should be. High oil prices, sustained rebound in inflation, and soaring interest rates are all detrimental to him. As long as oil can be shipped out, Trump will not immediately launch a strike and will patiently negotiate. 4. I increasingly feel that the negotiations between the United States and Iran are somewhat like the game and negotiation process of last year's US China trade war, where no one can completely suppress the other. So the ceasefire model of the China US trade war has become a great possibility. 1) The issue of opening up the strait is extremely urgent. Under certain conditions, Iran will open up the strait to a certain extent, while the United States will reciprocate by stopping the blockade of Oman and relaxing sanctions, just like the retaliatory tariffs and rare earth export issues in the China US trade war; 2) And issues such as the nuclear agreement and the status of the strait should be treated as vaguely as possible in the early stages, and discussed gradually later. The key here is that Trump does not want the oil price to continue to soar, which will drive inflation to continue to rebound and interest rates to rise, so that he can also escape from the situation in Iran and return to domestic affairs; Iran also does not want the coastline to be blocked, the oil export to be blocked, and the economic income to be severely hit, nor does it want Trump to restart the war. Although it has the ability to protect itself and fight back, it is also a problem for people's livelihood to be bombed into a mess at home. In this situation, the probability of a ceasefire agreement is greatly increased. Of course, for the United States, it actually tacitly acknowledges Iran's management rights over the strait. Of course, Trump can be said that the blockade of the United States forced Iran to open the strait. Iran can say that it still holds the dominant ship. As long as it passes according to the rules set by Iran, it wins every watch. 5. See if there will be a sharp drop in oil prices when they open tomorrow on Monday. It should be noted that at least there are still differences between the two sides - the United States says' Iran must hand over enriched uranium ', Iran says' we can talk about the nuclear issue later'. The United States says' Hormuz must be opened ', Iran says' lift port blockade first, withdraw troops first'. 6. The next few days are the life and death line, let's see if we can negotiate a temporary extension of the ceasefire for 2 to 3 months. From a personal perspective, the most ideal script would be: In the coming days, there will be a statement of "ceasefire+resumption of commercial navigation in Hormuz+gradual reduction of US blockade+30/60 day follow-up negotiations". The text will deliberately blur "who manages Hormuz" and may be written as "restoring safe navigation in accordance with international law, while ensuring navigation safety through coastal countries/relevant mechanisms". In this way, the United States can say that the strait is open, and Iran can say that sovereignty and management rights have not been lost. But even if this agreement is announced, it will still be a fragile agreement, not a risk clearance. What truly needs to be observed is: Whether the first batch of ships passed smoothly, without charge or detention; Is the United States really relaxing port and ship blockades; Will Iran stop setting new thresholds with 'management power'; It also depends on whether both sides make specific progress in subsequent negotiations, especially on the nuclear issue and the positioning of the strait. If there is this statement and agreement, it would be good news for the market and a strong catalyst; If we continue to argue and keep going back and forth, the patience of the market will become less and less. The core here is still the trend of oil prices, which determines the actual direction of inflation and interest rates. After all, in June, the first interest rate meeting of labor data, CPI data, and Walsh could potentially undermine market confidence. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'