Feilong Daily | May 24, 2026 (1) US-Iran Agreement Basically Finalized The US-Iran agreement is essentially settled. Iran has pledged to cease fire across the board, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift the maritime blockade. Commercial ships will regain free passage, and Iran will abandon high-enriched uranium. The US will release $25 billion in frozen assets, confirmed personally by Trump. The geopolitical black swan risk has been largely defused, giving risk assets a breather. This was the main reason for yesterday's rebound. (2) Rate Hike Expectations Heat Up On the 22nd, Walsh was sworn in as the new Federal Reserve Chair. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in 2026 has surged to 70%. No one knows for sure whether there will be a rate hike—it’s all speculation. We’ll keep an eye on the upcoming key dates before making any judgments: • 5.30 PCE • 6.4 Nonfarm Payrolls • 6.11 CPI • 6.16-17 FOMC (Walsh’s debut) (3) How to Operate Spot: Wait, keep waiting. Contracts: Focus on high levels! Until rate cut or rate hike expectations become clear, don’t chase highs or bottom out. Keep your ammo ready and wait for direction after Walsh’s debut!