The White House has held an emergency meeting and received a quick review of the Bitcoin V-type emergency call for 77200 All senior cabinet members of President Trump are now here. In the next 48 hours, Trump's decision will change the current stalemate between the United States and Iran. From 74300 to 77200, Bitcoin took most of the day to complete a rapid rebound. 1、 Direct Trigger: Emotional Pulse of the US Iran Agreement! The biggest driving force behind this round of market rebound is not a fundamental reversal, but one word: expectations. On the 23rd, US Vice President Vance stated that there has been "some progress" in negotiations with Iran. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also confirmed that it is reviewing the US memorandum of understanding proposal. In the past two days, rumors of a possible agreement have continued to ferment, and on the 24th, Bitcoin returned above 75000. This script is very familiar: negotiations progress → emotional boost → price pulse. But the 78000-78500 iron roof has been validated three times in the past two weeks, and the liquidity was unusually low on Sunday. Small funds are enough to create a price fluctuation of one or two thousand points during the period when the order book is empty. Once new substantive news (veto, strike, or delay) is implemented, it is highly likely that the "good news" will occur within the next 24-48 hours. On chain/ETF assisted verification: There was no mainstream net inflow data outflow in the first two days of this week, and there was no significant turning point signal in the funding situation. Currently, it belongs to "news driven+emotional repair after short-term panic clearance", rather than a reversal of the medium-term trend. 2、 Market structure: V-shaped rebound after oversold, clear buying reception From the 4-hour chart, the price quickly rose after hitting the bottom at the 74000 level, continuously closing small solid bullish lines, forming a typical V-shaped reversal structure. In the early stage of the rebound, the trading volume increased, indicating that there were funds actively buying the bottom, but later the trading volume shrank and turned into a gradual increase with reduced volume. MEXC analysis points out that every time there is a price correction, there are buying orders re entering the market, indicating that there is still strong demand in the market. This is not an 'unlimited rebound', but a rebound actively undertaken by funds around 74000. However, it should be noted that the MACD red bar is amplifying on the 4-hour cycle, and the RSI is approaching the overbought area, indicating that short-term high chasing risks are accumulating. Quantitative conclusion: The price has continuously closed with a bearish candlestick around 74000, and the trading volume has increased in the early stages of the rebound, indicating a relatively strong bullish trend. But after the price rebounded above 77000, the trading volume began to shrink, and the area above is about to enter the early chip lock up zone (77500-78500). Continuing to break through requires a new incremental buying relay. If there is no significant rebound in the future, there is a high probability of encountering obstacles and falling back. 3、 Who is the driving force behind the rebound? Short selling is also helping Part of the upward trend is actually driven by the forced liquidation of short positions. On May 23rd, when Bitcoin fell below 75000, approximately $941 million in leveraged positions had been liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions liquidated at approximately $870 million, and a large number of high leverage long positions have been cleared out. But during the V-shaped price rebound, a single day short position of $526 million was liquidated. As of the early morning of the 24th, the leading clearing indicator has turned positive from negative for two consecutive weeks. Short selling indicates that the initial rebound is driven by short covering. Once the short positions are cleared to a certain extent, the momentum of the rebound will weaken, and then the price trend will return to the nature of spot demand. 4、 Quick overview of current core indicators on the market Current price: 77000-77200 range, currently testing the early chip intensive area of 77500-78500. Upper resistance: 77500-78500 (four times verified iron top), 80000 (psychological barrier). Lower support: 76000-76500 (short-term support band), 75000-75500 (0.236 Fibonacci Line). 4-hour trading volume: In the early stage of the rebound, the trading volume increased, but after rising to around 77000, the trading volume gradually decreased and the buying momentum weakened. Fund wise: ETFs continue to experience net outflows, with no signs of institutional reversal. Emotional aspect: The expectation of US Iran negotiations is a short-term core variable, but there is a high risk of "all the good news coming out" after the news is released. Key observation point: If there is no substantial breakthrough in the US Iran negotiations after the opening of the US stock market on Monday (May 25th), or if Bitcoin cannot break through the 77500-78000 range in volume, the rebound is highly likely to end and the price will retrace to 76000-76500 to seek support. The rebound is message driven, not a trend reversal. The 78000 iron roof is still effective. Don't chase high, a deep bear is approaching, short selling is the main strategy. Non investment advice, for reference only, profit or loss is at your own risk. Bitcoin BTC Market Analysis: The 5th Wave of the US Iran Agreement Embarks on a Technical Rebound