BTC Market Evening Report: The price has fallen below 75000, and the first step of the deep bear market has been firmly established Bitcoin fell below 75000 last night, hitting a four month low of 74300. The door of 75000 was kicked open for several weeks and finally kicked open. This is not a technical correction, it is the fifth wave's main downtrend accelerating. 1、 What does losing 75000 mean? 75000 is not an ordinary number. It is the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, the last buffer of the upward structure since February, and also the cost line for micro strategy holdings (average price $75700-76037). This line of defense has been breached, and the market has lost its most important psychological anchor point. Micro strategy is no longer a 'dead long' strategy, ETFs are retreating and institutions are selling. A daily closing below 74000 will increase the downside risk to 72000. Currently, 74000 is being tested. 2、 Who is smashing the plate? Three negative factors are simultaneously exerting force Negative 1: The breakdown of US Iran negotiations increases the risk of impact The Iranian Foreign Minister said that the United States' demands are excessive and their positions are contradictory. Trump has cancelled his weekend trip and returned to the White House, seriously considering launching a new strike against Iran. Iran says' differences remain serious', while US Secretary of State Rubio says there is only 'slight progress'. Geopolitical risks are not diminishing, they are heating up. Negative 2: ETF continues to experience large-scale outflows The cumulative net outflow for two weeks is 2.26 billion US dollars, and the net outflow for this week is 1.26 billion US dollars. On May 13th, there was a net outflow of $630 million in a single day, the largest since the end of January. The net outflow of ETF spot institutions this Friday was $101 million; BlackRock IBIT: net outflow of $68.89 million, Fidelity FBTC: net outflow of $36.29 million, sixth consecutive trading day of net outflow. BlackRock IBIT has once again become the single product with the largest outflow, facing redemption pressure of $285 million in this round of outflows. When BlackRock is selling, who is taking over? Negative 3: Walsh's hawkish teeth have landed Kevin Walsh was sworn in as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve at the White House on Friday. His policy framework is clear: accelerating balance sheet reduction and weakening forward guidance. The market has already priced ahead and tightened expectations - the 30-year US Treasury yield is still above 5.16%, the highest since 2007. 3、 Market status: Bears are absolutely strong, rebound is unlimited The 4-hour chart shows a continuous solid bearish candlestick, with trading volume increasing during the downward trend. The rebound is boundless, and the trading volume after each pulse is shrinking, completely drying up the willingness to chase high prices. After losing 75000, the next key line of defense is 72000-73000 (200 day moving average area). If the closing price falls below 74000, the downside risk will accelerate. Within 24 hours, the entire network experienced a stock explosion of over 900 million US dollars, with 160000 people experiencing stock explosions. The bulls are undergoing a large-scale purge. 4、 Three scripts for subsequent price trends Script 1 (50-55%): Continue to explore 72000-73000. 75000 confirmed losses, ETFs continue to flow out, and US bond yields remain high. This is currently the most likely path. Script 2 (25-30%): Technical rebound around 74000, rebound to 75500-76500 and continue to decline. Oversold+integer level support, but only a rebound. Script 3 (10-15%): V-shaped reversal to recover 76500. The probability of the US Iran agreement exceeding expectations and ETF reversal inflow is extremely low. 5、 Strategy reference The current location is around 74600, no new warehouse will be opened. 75000 has fallen, do not go long in the bearish trend, do not buy bottom. Wait until the rebound reaches 75500-76500 and there is a bearish signal, then place short orders in batches. Continue to hold the mid line short position, with a first target price of 72000-72500. 6、 Summary of Bitcoin Market Today 75000 is the starting point, not the endpoint. The first step of the deep bear has been firmly stepped on. Don't buy at the bottom, deep bears are approaching, short selling is the main strategy. Non investment advice, for reference only, profit or loss is at your own risk. Bitcoin BTC market analysis: 5th wave opens with 75000 losses