水博乱乱|May 23, 2026 12:09
Today's Market Update
BTC is looking a bit weak... Walsh's speech combined with the possibility of Trump stirring things up in Iran over the weekend...
From 78k to 74k, this wave has been rough. The 75.7k entry model didn’t even give a chance for TP1 and got stopped out. Now working on the 74.2k entry model—aggressively aiming for TP1 first, then observing the rest. (Pic 2)
Pic 1: Looking at the bigger picture... this pullback has exceeded the previous hourly-level 6-7% pullbacks (green arrows), so we need to look at a larger timeframe... preparing for a blue-line level pullback. This might not happen all at once—it could gradually drop until the end of the month. We’ll need on-chain reports later to confirm this.
Pic 3: Right now, there’s an imbalance in the order book below this level...
Even though it’s just yellow-green and the threshold isn’t very high, I’m still hoping for a bounce here to complete the 74.2k entry model.
Pic 4: For intraday opportunities over the weekend, I’m watching two trapped long/short zones.
One is near the upper 76.7k~78k range. If there’s a chance to go up, it could be a great risk-reward short opportunity. Both Binance and Bybit have a lot of trapped longs here, combined with a massive POC.
For low-long opportunities, I’m still watching the triple-test around 74.2k. During the second test today, a lot of retail traders on Bybit shorted here and got trapped...
If we revisit this area again, their exit to break even could trigger a wave of buying pressure...
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