Today's US stock market summary: The weekly chart has closed with a cross star after eight consecutive positive days - these positions need to be closely monitored next week Today, S&P closed at 7473 points, up 0.37% But the story told by the candlestick is more worth paying attention to than its ups and downs. In the morning session, taking advantage of the rumors of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, we opened high and accurately filled the gap left by 7502 points last Thursday. Then the main force smashed the market at a high level, pushing the price back to near the opening. The daily chart closed with a tombstone cross star, and it was Lower High -2 points higher than before. After eight consecutive positive days on the weekly chart, this candlestick appearing here is not a good signal. Market structure: ABC wave pullback has been falsified The previously expected ABC three wave pullback in the market has not come out. The more likely form to follow is a volatile consolidation structure similar to the 6800-7000 at the beginning of this year - except this time the range is between 7330-7510. What will happen in this range? The market is likely to make a false move, falling below the 7260-7270 line to deceive once and then returning to the oscillation range. If this false drop is true, stepping back is buying some. But if 7260 is truly effectively breached, its nature will change. That's a deeper callback, targeting 7000-7100. This is not a collapse, it's a healthy wash up. Provide opportunities for other lagging sectors to make up for gains, as well as for bulls to rebuild their positions. The target of 8200 at the end of the year remains unchanged. UBS raised its S&P target for the end of 2026 from 7500 to 7900 today, and looks at 8200 for the first half of 2027 The rationale is that the annual EPS of listed companies will soar by 20% to $335, with 50% of the new profits concentrated in the semiconductor and data center sectors. Da Mo is simultaneously bullish at 8000, while Yadni is looking at 8250. Da Xing was forced to raise its target price, indicating that all previous expectations have been fulfilled ahead of schedule. Federal Reserve: Expectations of interest rate hikes are being repriced Kevin Walsh was officially sworn in as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve today. On the same day, Director Waller suddenly turned hawkish, stating that the probability of interest rate hikes and cuts is now close to 50-50. According to data from the derivatives backend, the December interest rate hike bet has surged to 68%. The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has basically returned to zero. If the May CPI data exceeds expectations, the path of interest rate hikes will further strengthen, which will continue to put pressure on the denominator of overvalued technology stocks. What did the All In Podcast say this week This episode is worth mentioning separately. Gavin Beck gave a core refutation of the theory of hedging AI foam: this is not hollow burning money, but a healthy bull market driven by real EPS and ROI. Google's AI related business has grown by 800% month on month, and its profit margin has not been swallowed up by CapEx, but is actually expanding. Anthropic achieved positive operating profit for the first time this quarter, and the total ARR of the entire network model is expected to reach 300-400 billion US dollars by the end of the year, with a gross profit margin of up to 80%. The more important judgment is that 2025 is only the first year of this AI CapEx expansion cycle, and in 2026 we are at the forefront of a three-year main wave. Nvidia's shipment visibility for the next 12 months has locked in a total revenue target of $1 trillion. Gavin Baker also debunked Nvidia's $20 billion CPU revenue figure. This 20 billion yuan is calculated by packaging HBM memory and the entire rack system into the CPU department, while the actual revenue from independent CPU chips is only 5-7 billion yuan. What is really being squeezed is not Intel and AMD's x86, but Qualcomm, Amazon Graviton, and Google Cobalt in the ARM camp. Regarding SpaceX, the prospectus reveals the true nature of three business segments. Starlink is the cash flow foundation, with revenue of 11.4 billion and net operating profit of 4.4 billion. Traditional launch incurs a loss of 650 million yuan. The AI/XAI department recorded a 6.4 billion operating loss under 20 billion CapEx. But Anthropic's 45 billion yuan long-term contract -1.25 billion yuan per month - has created a computing power rental business comparable in size to Starlink. Chamas' final suggestion: At this critical point of macro negative Gamma, the brain can only hold a maximum of 5 core heavy holdings. Don't juggle 30 targets, protect your capital. Another angle of AI foam theory Top buyer analyst Anna Wong's judgment direction is consistent, but the perspective is more macro. The real foam has only one definition - supply far exceeds demand, and money goes into it and becomes idle electronic waste. Now it's just the opposite. Intel's CPU and server orders are fully booked, and demand is pushing supply to the ground. The market is rewarding companies that can produce real ARR, while punishing targets that hollow out excessive investment. This is what the health market should look like. On a macro level, she is equally optimistic. The Atlanta Fed's GDP Show shows that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter has surged to 4.3%, still maintaining high growth under the pressure of oil price shocks. There are three fiscal pulses that support the economy: the $100 billion tax rebate brought about by the Supreme Court ruling on illegal tariffs, the 0.4% growth dividend contributed by One Big Beautiful Bill, and the defense CapEx expansion of at least $200 billion after the opening of the new fiscal year in September. But she also issued an important warning: the market severely underestimated the risk of interest rate hikes. Core PCE may rebound to over 3% by the end of the year. Walsh cannot find any reason to cut interest rates in an environment where GDP exceeds 2% and inflation exceeds expectations. There has never been a precedent in the history of the Federal Reserve to brake down after raising interest rates once. The current pricing for derivatives is to raise interest rates once in January 2027 and then wait and see, which may be too mild an assumption. Once the May CPI data confirms that inflation has not peaked, the path of interest rate hikes will quickly reprice, and liquidity pressure will be concentrated and released. Option structure: The market is running naked Put Skew has already broken through the extremely low value in nearly 20 years, only around 0.04. 20-25% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 100 have a call inversion, while the normal level is only 3%. The proportion in Philadelphia Semiconductor is as high as 35-50%, completely replicating the chip state at the peak of the bull market in 2021. Everyone is calling to chase the rise, no one is buying protection. This emotional structure, combined with the previously mentioned Cross Star Lower High, requires extra caution next week. China's regulatory black swan: Cross border securities firms are fully shut down Eight ministries and commissions jointly issued a heavy blow, completely prohibiting overseas institutions from providing cross-border securities services to mainland residents. Existing users can only sell and cannot buy within 2 years, and are required to clear their accounts upon maturity. Futu was fined up to 1.85 billion yuan. This is a long-term liquidity outflow for Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong stocks. The overseas channels for domestic retail investors have been physically sealed off, making it increasingly difficult for incremental funds to enter in the future. After the opening of the Hong Kong stock market next week, we need to pay attention. Geopolitical risk: Need to pay attention during the long holiday period The ultimatum for the US Iran negotiations has expired during this long holiday period. Iranian officials publicly deny that they are close to reaching an agreement. WTI crude oil is stuck at $97 for the day. If the war reignites during the long holiday, the crude oil price and market sentiment that will open next Monday will face a severe impact. This is the biggest tail risk variable for next week. Next week's three key observation points Can the S&P effectively break through the previous high of 7502? If it breaks through with volume, the structure will continue, and if it cannot hold on, it will seek support at the lower edge of the 7330 oscillation range. Is 7260-7270 a false or true drop? It is the watershed that distinguishes the depth of the correction. Whether there is substantial progress in geopolitics during the long holiday period directly determines the tone of next Monday's opening. The year-end target of 8200 remains unchanged. But from now until there, the market needs to first digest the accumulated floating profits in this round. A healthy correction is to go further.