Cuba is under siege, Bitcoin is buying? Trump's' maximum pressure 'is suppressing risk appetite Oh my goodness, Trump and the US military are preparing to attack Cuba again. It's too scary. Please watch the video below. Global Alert: The USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group has entered the Caribbean Sea, and a Florida court is simultaneously suing Ra ú l Castro. This is not a military action, it is the ultimate pressure of "prosecution+aircraft carrier" - the script used against Venezuela in January is now being applied to Cuba. The probability of the United States bombing Cuba in 2026 on Polymarket once soared to 40%, but then funds heavily bet that it will not happen. Currently, it has fallen to around 37%. The market is saying: listen to Trump's threats, but not believe them all. If Cuba is taken down by Trump, like Venezuela, what impact will it have on the global financial markets? What impact does it have on the median trend of Bitcoin prices? This is what we need to care about. Next, please listen to my analysis and prediction. 1、 The direct impact is limited, but there are three indirect transmission paths worth paying attention to! Firstly, oil prices. Cuba is not an oil producing country, but its economy is highly dependent on Venezuela's oil supply. If the conflict between the United States and Cuba escalates, the real impact will be on Venezuela's oil export channels. At present, Brent crude oil is at $102-103, and if the situation worsens, oil prices may retest at $110. The transmission chain of rising oil prices, rising inflation expectations, rising US bond yields, and pressure on risk assets is indirectly negative for Bitcoin. Secondly, the US dollar and safe haven assets. If Trump replicates the 'Venezuelan model' in Cuba, market concerns about the normalization of unilateral military actions by the United States will rise. A typical safe haven reaction is: a strengthening US dollar, rising gold, and pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin's performance in the safe haven narrative is complex - during the Iran conflict, Bitcoin fell synchronously with the US stock market and did not exhibit the "digital gold" attribute, and this time it is highly likely to be the same. Thirdly, risk appetite. On March 30th, Trump stated that "after Iran, Cuba is next," and emphasized again in early May. Some 'informed' funds on Polymarket believe that Trump's threat is just extreme pressure, not a combat plan. But the accumulation of uncertainty itself will continue to suppress risk appetite. 2、 Cuba's special association with Bitcoin: the overlooked 'invisible demand'. This is the most noteworthy discovery - Cuba is already one of the real demand markets for Bitcoin. After Western Union closed its remittance channel from the United States to Cuba in 2020, over 100000 Cuban users have turned to cryptocurrency as an alternative path, and the Cuban central bank has authorized companies to use virtual assets for cross-border business operations. The demand for Bitcoin in sanctioned economies is a "sanctioned premium" - the stronger the financial blockade, the stronger the logic of Bitcoin's "essential need" in Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba. 3、 The impact of comparing the price trend of Bitcoin Short term emotions, with a bearish direction, Core logic: Rising geopolitical risks → decreasing risk appetite → BTC under pressure; Oil price transmission, with a bearish direction; Core logic: If Venezuela's oil exports are hindered, oil prices will rise → inflation → US bond yields will rise; Risk avoidance narrative, with a neutral direction; Core logic: The Iran conflict has confirmed that BTC is not a substitute for gold; Long term structure with multiple directions (potential); Core logic: The "necessity" logic of cryptocurrency in a sanctioned environment is strengthened. Core judgment: Overall, the Cuban incident itself will not be the direct cause of the Bitcoin crash, but it is part of the 'geopolitical risk premium'. What the market is truly concerned about is not Cuba, but that Trump's "extreme pressure" model is being replicated from Iran to Cuba - this accumulation of uncertainty will continue to suppress risk appetite. 4、 Comparison of Bitcoin's medium-term trend and short position strategy insights. The Cuban incident does not change the medium-term structure of the current weekly level 5th wave decline. The iron cap of 78000-78500 is still effective, and the continuous outflow of ETFs is still the core suppression. The geopolitical risk premium is spreading from Iran to Cuba, but the impact on the market is "emotional suppression" rather than "panic driven". The probability trend on Polymarket itself is proof of the market's pricing power for the "Trump style threat"—— The market has learned: listen to what he says, but not believe everything.