Phyrex|May 22, 2026 18:49
A lot has happened today. The key point is that Walsh has been officially elected as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Although he and Trump are talking about maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve, we can see exactly how the interest meeting in June and the dot matrix chart show it. It is not meaningful to say anything now. When the meeting comes, it is the time for the new and old Federal Reserve to take over. I think Trump will also be nervous. Walsh will listen or not?
The United States and Iran are still the current side missions, but this side mission deeply affects the main mission. Today, WTI fell below $95, mainly due to market rumors that the United States and Iran can reconcile. But as I said, don't just look at the United States or Iran, look at the joint statement of both sides, just like the temporary ceasefire. If it's not jointly published, don't believe the letter.
Sure enough, just when market expectations were good, Iran jumped out and said that it was still very early to reach an agreement. This directly raised the price of WTI by two dollars. However, from various signs, it is indeed possible to reach a preliminary settlement before June, at least to achieve smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz, and WTI will be reduced to below 90 dollars.
I have been talking about short selling WTI for a long time. In the past, it was because the funding rate was too high to keep holding it. Now, Binance's CLUSDT funding rate has decreased significantly, and this week's funding rate can be ignored, so the cost of holding it has decreased a lot. My first goal is still $90, but I think the downward trend will accelerate after reaching $90. Let's look at $90 first.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the price is still in a slightly volatile trend, which is still related to the US stock market. However, BTC is clearly more affected by macro factors, and once there is some turbulence, short-term investors will leave. However, from the data, both spot ETFs and native investors have performed very well, without any nervousness, and the turnover rate has always remained low.
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