Apple Life Android life is just a difference in lifestyle, from today on, American stock life A-share life is the beginning of a watershed in life What will happen when securities firms such as Tiger, Futu, and Changqiao are thoroughly regulated, and mainland users can no longer conveniently buy Hong Kong and US stocks? Next, I will do a future simulation with five layers of results If there is any similarity, it is purely a coincidence The first layer result is simple: The demand will not disappear, it will only take a different path Previously: RMB → USD → Overseas Securities → US/Hong Kong Stocks In the future, it may become: RMB → stablecoin → CEX/on chain RWA → US stock token/Pre IPO token The problem is, regulation is not stupid either When a large number of people start using USDT and USDC to buy Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple stock tokens And Pre IPO tokens from SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI In the eyes of regulators, this matter is no longer just 'speculation' It will turn into four problems: 1. Capital project management issues 2. Foreign exchange management issues 3. Illegal cross-border securities issues 4. Tax collection and management issues So, this leads to the second level result: The supervision continues to shift from cracking down on overseas Internet securities companies to cracking down on OTC, CEX and RWA platforms of stable currency Specifically, it is divided into three steps: The first step is to enter the entrance The focus is not on on chain contracts, but on how to convert Chinese yuan into U So what will be targeted are OTC merchants, bank card deposits and withdrawals, third-party payments, underground banks, and large USDT transactions. The result is that the cost of buying U has increased, the risk of card freezing has risen, deposits and withdrawals have slowed down, and the threshold for ordinary people to enter on chain finance has become higher. Step two, hit the platform If the head CEX provides various RWA products such as American Stock Token and Pre IPO Token to users in Chinese Mainland, it may be considered as providing overseas securities services in disguised form. So the platform will be forced to make a choice: Either restrict mainland KYC users; Either shut down Chinese promotion and agency rebates; Either only allow withdrawals and no longer allow further trading. The result is that the more compliant mainstream CEX is, the less dare it meet the securitization asset demand of users in Chinese Mainland. Step three, send a message Future exchange KYC, on chain addresses, stablecoin deposits and withdrawals, and RWA returns may all enter the perspective of tax CRS. Previously, CRS mainly focused on bank, securities firms, and fund accounts. In the future, frameworks such as CARF may also include encrypted asset accounts in tax transparency. This should be sooner or later. The result is that CEX accounts will increasingly resemble overseas bank accounts. Do you think you just bought a token on the chain But in the eyes of regulators, it may be: You hold US dollar assets You have participated in overseas securities You have generated overseas income You need to explain the source of funds and tax obligations The third layer result is harder: Tighten the foreign exchange quota directly Nowadays, ordinary people have a convenient foreign exchange purchase limit of $50000 per year What if in the future it becomes $10000, or even some uses are practically suppressed to near zero? The intention of regulation may be: Reduce personal currency exchange Reduce capital outflows Compress overseas asset allocation Preventing stablecoins from becoming a new cross-border channel But the market's reaction may be exactly the opposite Because for ordinary people, $50000 is not just a limit It's still a psychological safety pad It means: I can also exchange some dollars I can also send my child to study abroad I can also allocate overseas assets .. Once this path is significantly tightened, the market will not only understand it as' exchanging less currency '. The market will understand it as: The door is closing So, the fourth layer result appeared: The tighter the tightening, the earlier the action, and the people start to rush to run People who were not in a hurry to exchange currency now become anxious People who originally didn't buy US dollar assets started researching People who originally only bought QDII are now looking for other channels People who originally didn't touch stablecoins started asking how to buy U This is the most difficult aspect of regulation to handle: The more you want to control the expectation of outflow, the more likely you are to strengthen the expectation of outflow. So the funds began to continue migrating: From Tiger/Futu to CEX From CEX, flowing onto the chain From big platforms to small platforms From platform OTC to private OTC Flow from relatively transparent areas to more opaque and dangerous areas Fifth layer results It's just that the risk sinks further Previously, you bought real stocks from a brokerage account In the future, many people may buy: I don't know if there are real underlying assets of US stock tokens I don't know if the Pre IPO certificate can be redeemed RWA products that are hosted, audited, and backed by unknown parties Even a promise in a private OTC group This is not financial freedom anymore But the risk sinks So, to summarize, this regulatory chain may become increasingly long: Overseas securities firms → stablecoin entrance → CEX → OTC → US Stock Token → Pre-IPO Token → RWA → Tax information exchange Tightening of foreign exchange quota Finally, a new hierarchical structure will be formed average person: Only QDII, Hong Kong Stock Connect, and domestic funds can be used, but the products are limited, the quota is limited, and the experience is limited High net worth individuals: Continue to allocate global assets through Hong Kong, Singapore, family offices, and offshore structures Overseas residents: Using local compliant securities firms, banks CEX， Relatively minor impact Native users in the cryptocurrency community: Continue to venture on the chain, but face higher risks of deposit and withdrawal, tax, and platform risks Grey speculative users: Squeezed into a smaller, wilder, and more opaque underground passage The essence of today's matter is not just a brokerage news It is a bigger signal: Global assets are in the process of tokenizing everything But sovereign regulation also attempts to re control everything Technology is lowering financial barriers Regulation is re establishing boundaries And ordinary people are caught between these two forces Previously, we talked about Apple Life Android Life It's just a difference in our way of life In the future, we will talk about life in the US stock market A-shares Life This is the beginning of the watershed in life