Crude Oil Market Analysis 2026.05.22 Starting from May 15th in the group, I started to go long on crude oil. During this period, I went through three or four waves and accumulated nearly 10% of the volatility. What do you think about crude oil next? I tend to view the decline in crude oil since March 9th as a correction rather than a new downward trend. The reason is simple: The market is currently trading in the 'US Iran peace talks', but history has repeatedly proven that conflicts of interest between major powers and regional security contradictions are rarely completely resolved through a few rounds of negotiations. It goes without saying that both World War I and World War II ultimately determine the outcome of the negotiation table based on the results of the battlefield; The Korean War ended with only a ceasefire, and there is still no peace treaty to this day; Iran and Iraq fought for eight years, and it was only after both sides reached their limits that they accepted the United Nations ceasefire; The Bosnian War was also a result of NATO airstrikes and changes in the ground situation, which led to the Dayton Agreement ..... So my understanding is simple - negotiations can cause a short-term drop in oil prices, but cannot directly eliminate the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil. The core of the US Iran issue cannot be solved by simply saying 'we are in talks'. What truly determines the trend of oil prices is whether the risks in the Middle East have been substantially lifted, and whether the underlying contradictions such as Hormuz, sanctions, the Iranian nuclear issue, and the US Middle East strategy have been repriced. If only the news of peace talks is released, the decline in oil prices is more of a risk premium giving up. As long as the core contradiction is not resolved, it will be difficult for crude oil to directly break out of a new downward trend. So a short-term decline is more like a correction in the upward trend. As long as geopolitical risks continue to escalate, crude oil still has a chance to continue rising. Technically speaking, pay attention to the red support range (93 line) in Figure 3. If it does not fall below this level again, it is assumed that the pullback of crude oil is about to end. If the K entity falls below this level within 4 hours, the adjustment will continue. After finding the adjustment endpoint, it will continue to test the 108 line and then the 126 line.