蓝狐|May 21, 2026 23:36
Boss Josie has provided a detailed description of the current difficulties in the industry. In the past 2-3 years, the industry has entered a downturn due to the "fishing in the dry" style of extraction. Even though the fundamentals of the industry are much better than before, the despair in the market and community is far worse than in 2019.
This is no longer a normal bull bear cycle.
An interesting aspect of the encryption field is that it has an extremely strong sense of tearing. On the one hand, it is a super large casino, a 24/7 non-stop casino around the world; On the one hand, it is a carrier for realizing the ideal of cypherpunk, a promised land of freedom.
The tug of war between these two aspects has been present since the birth of BTC, and it is very magical. And now the power has long been out of balance, idealism has almost disappeared, and casino power is becoming increasingly dominant.
Nevertheless, we can still see some different things.
Stablecoins (USD on chain): This is the hardest achievement of the past three years and has become the de facto USD pipeline for emerging markets. The scale continues to expand and is increasingly embedded in real payments and trade settlements, rather than just circulating between CEX.
Real asset tokenization (listing US stocks/bonds/bills, etc.): Although the start is slow, the path is clear. Traditional giants such as BlackRock and Franklin are laying out their presence, and once regulatory and custody technologies mature, the increment will be significant. Ethereum+other L1/L2 will become the main carrier layer.
Prediction Markets&Perp: One of the most impressive innovations of the past two years. The information efficiency is extremely high, and the utilization rate of funds is also high. It has demonstrated a more sensitive price discovery ability than traditional finance in certain fields (elections, macro events).
DeFi's persistence: Although TVL has been overshadowed by memes and new narratives, the core protocols (lending, DEX, stablecoins) are silently iterating. The true killer application may still need to wait for "killer UX" and clear regulation.
AI x Crypto: Currently in the early experimental stage (data market, decentralized computing, AI agent payment, etc.), but integration is inevitable. AI requires verifiable computation and payment, while Crypto requires intelligent execution agents. The two are inherently complementary, but the time will be longer than many people expect.
The roadmap of Ethereum (Danksharding, Verkle Trees, zk based extensions, etc.) is still advancing, and it remains the most likely candidate to become a "global settlement layer for real-world assets," despite fierce competition.
And when traditional finance on the blockchain matures, not only digital wallets, but also digital identities, and even social/gaming, will reignite the flame of combining with Crypto.
The pace of the world is too fast now, and people need to achieve everything immediately. However, the pace of the encryption field cannot be accelerated. Not only is the chain itself a balanced product (decentralization cannot simultaneously balance performance and security), but it also needs to reshape many traditional industries, which are deeply rooted and difficult to shake, and cannot be achieved in a day. This is not a bug, but a feature.
I am optimistic about the encryption industry in the long run, but the ups and downs will continue for many years to come.
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