Some opinions on the future trend of Bitcoin: native: The following article by CryptoQuant suggests that the current trend of Bitcoin may be repeating the bear market stage of March 2022, I generally agree with this statement: the 200 day moving average is a hurdle, and this stage is indeed similar to 2022, but there are also differences! one ️⃣ The selling pressure near the 200 day moving average is very real. In bear markets or medium-term downturns, the 200 day moving average is often not an "immediate breakthrough" position, but rather a place where early lock ups, short-term rebound profits, and trend traders short/reduce positions all appear together. The relevant analysis of CryptoQuant also compares the obstruction around $82400 and subsequent decline to around $76000 to the failure of the 200 day moving average rebound in the 2022 bear market; This indicates that the market has regarded it as a 'trend checkpoint'. two ️⃣ ETF fund flow. The difference from the previous market is the addition of ETFs; According to Farside Investors data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of $648.6 million on May 18th, and a net outflow of $331.1 million on May 19th; This indicates that institutional channels are no longer providing stable buying opportunities in the short term. This type of capital flow is important for BTC because ETF redemption can affect spot buying and selling pressure; When the price hits the key resistance, if ETF inflows cannot keep up, the probability of breakthrough failure will significantly increase. three ️⃣ The macro environment does not match the risk assets. Walsh's first appearance on stage: The US Iran war is still unresolved, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year has risen to 80%! In addition, according to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting on April 28-29, inflation remains above the 2% target, and almost all members support maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. Most members believe that if inflation continues to exceed 2%, further policy tightening may become appropriate. For BTC, high interest rates, strong expectations for the US dollar, and rising long-term US bond yields will all weaken the 'liquidity driven rebound'. Having said so much, I am not bearish. What I want to say is: According to my operational discipline, this is not a position for heavy positions to chase after long positions. We need to be extremely cautious. We can use 82500 as a long short boundary and 75000 as a risk switch. If we haven't touched it, we can temporarily hold our ground!