Glassnode: Bitcoin regains true market average but fails to stand firm, on chain indicators show consolidation or persist for months BlockBeats News: On May 21st, Glassnode announced that Bitcoin has regained its true market average of $78300, but has not been able to sustain above that level. Historical cycles indicate that weeks to months of consolidation may be required before confirming a credible bull market transition. The 30 day moving average has achieved a profit to loss ratio of 1.8 during the rebound period, rising from 0.4 in February, indicating that demand is not sufficient to absorb the wave of profit taking. This indicator needs to be consistently maintained at 2 or above in order to send a signal of genuine recovery in buyer power. The 30 day cost baseline at $78200 has shifted from support to upper resistance, and the cost baseline of the accumulated group formed between February and April ($71400) is currently the most direct support level in the current correction. The internal structure of the spot market has weakened in recent weeks, with the cumulative difference in spot trading volume (CVD) remaining negative overall, and Coinbase activity continuing to lag. This indicates that despite occasional offshore speculative demand, the spot participation of US institutions remains relatively weak. CME futures open interest contracts continue to rise in price, indicating that institutional participation in the derivatives market is improving as overall spot demand remains indecisive near the current high point of the range. The recent slowdown in the accumulation rate of US spot ETFs further indicates that positions are increasingly driven by futures activity. The implied volatility is recovering from low levels, mainly concentrated in short-term contracts, while long-term expectations remain stable. The continuous decrease in volatility and the expansion of volatility risk premium have made hedging protection costs relatively controllable. Option holdings remain defensive. The skewness indicator shows a renewed demand for downside protection, while the negative gamma range around $75000 makes spot prices vulnerable to amplified hedge flows and intensified price volatility. BlockBeats note: "True Market Mean Price" (TMMP) is an important indicator in on chain analysis of Bitcoin, also known as "Active Investor Price". Essentially, it reflects the average price at which Bitcoin (i.e., the coins actually bought, sold, or transferred between investors) is actively circulating in the market. [Original link]