The countdown to the US Iran peace agreement has begun! The BTC rebound is about to erupt, what about the final frenzy? 】 Bitcoin has rebounded slightly for two consecutive days, closing at 77500 on a daily basis with increased trading volume to 107400 units, ending the previous five consecutive declines. The driving force behind this rebound is not the technical aspect, but the news aspect - the US Iran agreement text has entered the "final draft" stage. The agreement may be announced at any time. This is not about 'whether it will be achieved', it's about 'when to announce'. 1、 Latest progress of the agreement: to be seen within hours According to Al Hadath, both the US and Iran are working on the final polishing of the agreement text. If it weren't for the temporary visit of the Pakistani Army Chief of Staff to Iraq, the announcement could have been made within a few hours. Trump himself also confirmed that the negotiations have entered the "final stage". The current framework of divergence is already clear: Iran demands a permanent ceasefire, complete lifting of sanctions, and recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. The United States demands that Iran suspend its nuclear program for 20 years, accept international verification, and fully open the strait. Neither party can fully satisfy the other. The most likely outcome is: a framework agreement+subsequent negotiations - each taking a step back and announcing 'significant progress', with core disputes left for later. After the agreement was reached, oil prices plummeted by 5%, US bond yields fell, and US stocks rose by over 500 points. These have already happened. However, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of 77000-77500 and did not experience a significant increase. This indicates that the market has partially priced the protocol expectations, and Bitcoin's response is significantly weaker than traditional risk assets. 2、 Rebound height prediction: 79500 is the ceiling From your Fibonacci uptrend channel: The 0.5 position (77500-78000) has been basically achieved 0.618 position (near 79500) - highly likely to be reached after the agreement is reached 0.786 position (80500-81000) - protocol exceeded expectations+ETF reversal inflow, low probability The area around 79500 is the CME futures gap zone and also the suppression zone of the 4-hour EMA50. In history, Bitcoin often falls immediately after filling the gap. 80000 is a psychological barrier that requires increased volume and sustained buying to break through - with the current pattern of ETF outflows, it is extremely difficult. 3、 Why haven't the bears entered yet? On May 19th, BlackRock IBIT had a daily outflow of $326 million, accounting for 98% of the total outflow for the day. Coinbase's premium has been negative for several consecutive days, and compliance funds in the United States are still selling. The main bearish force has been delaying entry, not because they don't want to short, but because the sword of agreement is still hanging over their heads: On the one hand, the bears have been crushed too many times. Since the outbreak of the conflict in February, every ceasefire news has triggered a wave of short selling, with a huge cumulative amount of liquidated damages. The bears have already developed a psychological shadow and dare not take a heavy position before potential positive news arrives. On the other hand, the time window for the announcement of the agreement is too close. Once the protocol is announced, Bitcoin is likely to pulse around 79500, and the bears will be crushed again. They can only dare to take action after the 'good news' is implemented. 4、 Your strategic logic: Good news landing becomes bad news Once the agreement is announced, the geopolitical risk premium recedes, the narrative of 'war inflation' ends, and oil prices continue to fall. But the key question is: How much has Bitcoin been pre priced? After rumors of the agreement being finalized on May 20th spread, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 500 points, Brent crude oil plummeted 5%, and Bitcoin fluctuated around 77000. This indicates that the market has partially priced in the expected agreement, but the pricing of Bitcoin is significantly weaker than that of traditional assets. The path after the announcement of the agreement is likely to be: the pulse rebounds to around 79500, and then quickly falls back - the good news turns negative. 5、 Trading Strategy The current price is 77500, wait and see. Any increase before the announcement of the agreement is driven by emotions, not a trend reversal. Wait until the rebound reaches 79000-79500 and there is a short signal, then place short orders in batches, stop loss 81000, and target 76000 → 75000. Continue to hold the mid line short position, with a target of 75000 → 72000. The earlier the agreement is announced, the earlier bears can enter the market. Be patient and wait for the signal. Non investment advice, profits and losses are self funded. 6、 Final reminder The agreement is the 'Sword of Damocles', not a' peace of mind '. Before the announcement, it held up the price; After the announcement, it became a reason to sell. The downward trend of the fifth wave will not change due to an agreement. The agreement only makes the rebound stronger and clarifies the timing for short positions to enter. Don't chase high, wait for 79500, wait for bearish signals. Today I wrote the latest in-depth analysis of AI civilization infrastructure and its investment, titled 'The Most Dangerous Signal Has Arrived: Wealth is crazily flowing towards those who understand AI!'! They are laying out the next generation of civilized infrastructure in advance! 》It is worth studying carefully when you have time, my friends If you think I wrote this article, please like it and help forward it. Thank you all. Bitcoin BTC Market Analysis: The 5th Wave of the US Iran Agreement Begins