Latest Bitcoin Market Observation and Analysis Can long and short positions be relatively weak, with the main force of bears not actively smashing the market, and is there still a mid line main downward trend At present, both long and short positions are relatively weak, and price fluctuations are relatively small. What will be the future price trend? Xiaolong will provide you with the latest market analysis. 1、 Why do short positions appear 'not very strong'? Core reason: The current price decline is not due to the bears actively smashing the market, but rather the bulls themselves being unable to withstand it. From the data on the chain, it can be seen very clearly: Firstly, this round of decline is driven by "bullish liquidation" rather than "bearish opening". On May 18th, a single day position of 657 million US dollars was liquidated, with bulls accounting for 584 million US dollars (89%). On May 19th, the position was liquidated at $108 million, with long positions still accounting for 66%. Wintermute's report clearly states that the previous price increase was not driven by real spot market demand, but mainly by the bearish trend in the perpetual futures market. In other words, bulls are liquidated one after another, and prices naturally fall. Bears don't even need to actively open positions, they just need to 'wait'. Secondly, contract trading volume has surged, but spot liquidity has dried up. The weekend trading volume was extremely low, and after the forced liquidation occurred, the 24-hour contract trading volume expanded by more than 40%, but spot demand remained weak. Derivative contracts remain the main driving force behind prices, rather than organic spot buying. That's why prices are falling, but you can't see the feeling of a 'bear army pressing down' - because the real sellers are not bears, but long positions forced to close out. 2、 Why haven't the bearish main force exerted its strength yet? Core reason: They are also waiting for a clearer macro direction. Firstly, Walsh has just taken office and the policy path is unclear. Kevin Walsh was officially sworn in on May 20th. Although the market generally expects him to be hawkish, his first public statement has not yet been implemented. The bearish main force will not heavily bet during times of high policy uncertainty. Secondly, the lesson of crowded bears is still in front of us. In early May, the funding rate dropped to -0.012%, causing a crowded market for bears. As a result, on May 14th, when the news of Clarity Act came out, a wave of short selling directly exploded the bears. The bearish main force will be more cautious about 'short positions with low positions and heavy positions'. Thirdly, 75000 to 76000 are sensitive areas. This position is a triple combination of 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, Strategy average position ($75537), and CME futures gap area. The bearish main force is waiting for this position to effectively fall below - if it falls below, they will increase their positions; If they hold on, they will wait for a rebound before emptying. 3、 The real structure of the current market Active bears: not yet entering the market on a large scale, not "weak bears", but "bears waiting"; Active long position: has been cleaned up multiple times, and after the $657 million liquidation, the long position's vitality has been greatly damaged; Passive selling pressure: ETFs continue to flow out, and institutions are reducing their positions, which is a real sell; Spot demand: extremely weak, trading volume has fallen to a two-year low, with no one taking orders. Wintermute's summary is precise: price increases are not driven by real demand in the spot market, with open derivative contracts expanding by $10 billion to $58 billion within a month, while underlying spot trading volume simultaneously fell to a two-year low. The current market is essentially driven by leverage, and real spot buyers have not returned. 4、 Does the mid line main downtrend still exist without actively smashing the market? Existence. And it precisely indicates that the fifth wave is far from over. The true main downtrend often occurs after the key support breaks and the bearish main force confirms the trend. The current state of 'weak bears' is not' not wanting to fall ', but' not needing to take the initiative to fall '- ETF continues to flow out+long positions are liquidated+spot demand is exhausted, and prices are already naturally falling. Wintermute's report confirms this: the rise in the past month was not driven by spot demand, but rather the result of the expansion of open derivative contracts by $10 billion to $58 billion. When prices turn, this lever driven structure will accelerate the decline. 5、 Key conclusions The main downward trend in the middle line not only exists, but is also ongoing. Just the main downtrend hasn't arrived yet - the real acceleration of the decline will have to wait for the key area of 75000 to 76000 to be effectively breached. The current medium-term short position strategy is not a problem, as the bearish main force has not yet entered the market on a large scale, which precisely indicates that the downward space is still ahead. Key observation positions: 75000 to 75600. Hold on, rebound; Falling below, accelerating. Patiently hold the mid line short position, wait for the bulls to continue to decline, let the bulls grind themselves apart, wait for a complete drop below 75000, and the price will accelerate its decline!