Pai 🌲
Pai 🌲|May 20, 2026 11:57
This bear market is different from the previous ones. Yesterday K33 released a report with the core sentence: Traders have never been so pessimistic before. But interestingly, excessive pessimism is actually a bottom line. The logic is simple, when everyone is already bearish, who will still smash it? A person without chips cannot smash the plate. The pancake slid from 126k to 77k, a drop of nearly 40%. But feel it: there's no trampling, no serial explosions, even panic comes slowly. Just like you know you're going to get punched next, if you tighten your muscles in advance, it won't hurt as much when you actually get hit. This reminds me of something. The most dangerous thing in the market is not the bear market itself, but the rebound in the bear market that makes people think the bear has already left. From 76.8k to 82k, there was initially a deviation in volume and price, but later the trading volume increased and many people filled their positions again. And then? Continuously declining, the daily structure has not yet turned over. The real question worth thinking about is not 'how much more do we need to fall', but 'will there be no V-shaped reversal this time?' People who are used to the past few bull markets assume that there will be a surge after a sharp drop in their minds. But what if this is a U-shaped bottom? Or a rectangular bottom with another six-month drop at the bottom? My answer has been discussed countless times in the live broadcast room, and I have also detailed it in my tweets. But I think the most valuable thing in this round is not guessing where the bottom is, but surviving until the next round. Keep your bullets safe and don't fill up your position in the rebound.
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