UBS: Slowing US consumer spending may threaten stock market gains According to Golden Finance, on May 20th, Banu Baweja, Chief Strategist of UBS Group, stated that as real disposable income growth approaches zero and fiscal support gradually fades, US consumer spending will slow down, posing a threat to the stock market. Despite being driven by artificial intelligence, US companies showed strong profitability in the first quarter. Baweija pointed out that in the past few trading days, the yield of long-term US treasury bond bonds has risen sharply, and the yield of 30-year US treasury bonds has risen to a high level not seen since 2007. He warned that this increase reflects strong nominal growth in the United States, rather than inflation concerns, and that real yields are the main factor driving interest rates up. The market is currently focused solely on the capital expenditures of large-scale artificial intelligence enterprises, while ignoring the risks of slowing down in the consumer and financial sectors. The strong first quarter profit growth in these areas has concealed the underlying weakness. If the market is worried about inflation today, it should be worried about growth tomorrow. In this context, the strategist expects that large cap stocks will perform better than small cap stocks, and growth stocks will outperform value stocks, especially if the Middle East conflict persists. However, even if both the US and European stock markets face resistance, the performance of the US market will still be better than that of Europe.