Phyrex|5月 20, 2026 10:09
I will also explain to my friends:
At the beginning of 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued Document No. 136 (NDRC Price [2025] No. 136), which clearly stipulates that the configuration of energy storage shall not be used as a prerequisite for the approval, grid connection, and grid connection of new wind and photovoltaic projects.
Many new energy storage systems have an installed capacity ratio of 10% to 20% and a duration of 2 hours. For example, a 1 million kilowatt photovoltaic power station, if equipped with 10%, 2-hour energy storage, is essentially 100000 kilowatts/200000 kilowatt hours. It can run 100000 kilowatts for 2 hours, but it cannot allow a 1 million kilowatt power station to run steadily for several hours at night, let alone adjust across days and seasons.
2. Currently, the peak demand in the eastern region (such as East China) still requires mutual assistance from the western region, and it is not generally "inexhaustible". During the next 15th Five Year Plan period, there may be local surplus after the increase of offshore wind power and nuclear power in the eastern region, but data from 2026 still shows that the peak in the eastern region is mainly tight. Cross regional trading has set a record in 2025, with the eastern region focusing more on buying electricity rather than selling it on a large scale.
The problem in Sichuan is actually the risk of "electricity shortage". During the period of abundant water and electricity, there is a surplus, but local consumption is limited, requiring external transmission (such as Sichuan East Power Transmission). This also confirms the local challenge of 'being able to publish but unable to use'.
It's true that Sichuan has a large installed capacity of hydropower, and the data is even higher than what you said. By December 2025, the installed capacity of hydropower in Sichuan has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, accounting for about a quarter of the total installed capacity of hydropower in China, making it the first province in the country to surpass 100 million kilowatts.
But the biggest problem with hydropower is not installation, but water supply. Sichuan in 2022 is the most typical example. Sichuan suffered from extreme heat and drought that year, with an average precipitation 51% lower than the same period in previous years. The inflow of major rivers was 20% to 50% lower, directly leading to a decrease in hydropower generation capacity. Sichuan is not without installed hydroelectric power, but rather due to the combination of high temperature and high load with insufficient water supply, resulting in 'having units but not being able to generate them'.
So the problem in Sichuan is not 'insufficient hydropower installation', but the possibility of water abandonment during the wet season and power shortage during the dry season. I usually send out a lot, but I am also nervous in extreme weather. This is called structural contradiction, not total power shortage.
Those who used to mine BTC knew this.
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